How much can Obama squeeze Putin?
Punishing Russia over Flight 17 could have disastrous effects on the Iranian nuclear talks
Last week was the biggest news week of the year. Israel invaded Gaza. A passenger jet was shot down, almost certainly by Vladimir Putin's shadow army in Eastern Ukraine. And thanks to a Friday night news dump, the event with probably the greatest long-term impact on us largely escaped attention. That would be the kicking of the can down the road on nuclear talks between Iran, the U.S., and five other world powers.
All of these events are connected in a dangerous and potentially destabilizing way. Twenty-four hours after the Malaysia Airlines jet with at least one American passenger was downed, a grim-faced President Obama came into the White House briefing room to declare it an outrage. Obama, who jacked up sanctions on the Russians the day before the downing of Flight 17, said even more sanctions on Moscow may be in the cards.
Make no mistake about who did this. The missile that knocked the plane down came from territory controlled by Putin's henchmen. The same goons who bragged three weeks ago about having such missiles, and who were heard on radio intercepts Thursday (thanks NSA!) saying they just shot down a plane. Obama is right: The Russians need to be punished.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
But here's the problem. Obama has made a nuclear deal with Iran his number one foreign policy goal. But to get Iran to halt its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon, he needs help, on some level, from the Russians. How far can Obama squeeze Putin on Ukraine when he needs his cooperation on Iran?
The Russians have minimal incentive to cooperate. They have big commercial interests in Iran — billions of dollars are at stake in oil and gas deals, and nuclear reactors (to produce electricity, Moscow and Tehran claim). Both Russia and Iran have been hit by American sanctions, their economies are struggling, and they need each other.
It's noteworthy that after Obama and Putin spoke on Thursday (Putin told the president he's unhappy about the new sanctions), Putin made anther call, to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. "Mr. Putin and Mr. Rouhani exchanged views on the state of talks on Iran's nuclear program," the Kremlin press release said. "The two leaders also examined bilateral cooperation matters of mutual interest, including joint projects in the oil and gas sector and in peaceful nuclear energy."
Putin is in prime position here to gum up the works — he can influence the course of these nuclear talks with Iran, slow them down, even derail them. If he can protect Russian business interests in Iran while sticking it to Obama, why wouldn't he?
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
So far he hasn't, at least not that much. Iran has made nuclear concessions in the past year and Russia has assisted in the removal of chemical weapons from its other Mideast ally, Syria — easing at least one of many ongoing threats to Israel. Still, Syrian butcher Bashar al-Assad — supported by Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran, which is supported by Russia — is still in power. At the top of this hideous food chain, behind the red-brick walls of the Kremlin, is Putin himself. If he decides that he's being pushed too far by Obama, this type of cooperation could evaporate in a hurry. He can squeeze us on Iran, and he can increase the regional threat to Israel.
For all of Obama's talk, he knows this. The world is vastly less stable today than a week ago, and it was less stable a week ago than it was six months ago. His choice: squeeze Putin, punish him over Ukraine and contain him, Cold War style — or somehow get him to help on Iran. He really can't have it both ways.
An award-winning member of the White House press corps, Paul Brandus founded WestWingReports.com (@WestWingReport) and provides reports for media outlets around the United States and overseas. His career spans network television, Wall Street, and several years as a foreign correspondent based in Moscow, where he covered the collapse of the Soviet Union for NBC Radio and the award-winning business and economics program Marketplace. He has traveled to 53 countries on five continents and has reported from, among other places, Iraq, Chechnya, China, and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
-
7 restaurants that beat winter at its own chilly game
The Week Recommends Classic, new and certain to feed you well
By Scott Hocker, The Week US Published
-
Sudoku medium: December 24, 2024
The Week's daily medium sudoku puzzle
By The Week Staff Published
-
Sudoku hard: December 24, 2024
The Week's daily hard sudoku puzzle
By The Week Staff Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published