Young people are just procrastinating on ObamaCare
Reports of an imminent "death spiral" are premature and, most likely, over-hyped
ObamaCare enrollees are, so far, generally older and therefore potentially less healthy than the general public. And on the flip side, only one-fourth of sign-ups are in the crucial 18-35 year-old age bracket, well below the administration's roughly 40 percent target, according to new enrollment data released Monday.
Given the top-heavy enrollment figures, critics and skeptics are again raising a doomsday scenario in which an elderly pool of enrollees, without adequate subsidization from healthier, younger people, causes premiums to skyrocket so much the entire system crumbles.
"Hello, Death Spiral," snarks a National Review headline.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Terrifying, right?
However, the administration expected that young people would procrastinate until the last minute, while older and sicker people would be more motivated to get coverage as soon as possible. People have until the end of March to sign up for ObamaCare before the individual mandate's penalty kicks in, so assuming that works as something of a metaphorical term paper deadline, there could very well be a surge of young people into ObamaCare in the next couple of months.
Massachusetts' experience implementing Romneycare in 2006 offers some historical precedent. As an analysis by MIT economics professor Jonathan Gruber shows, the percentage of Romneycare sign-ups in the 19-34 year-old bracket hovered in the low 20s for the first few months before gradually rising into the mid-30s range by the end of the year.
ObamaCare, likewise, saw an eight-fold increase in young adults enrolling in December compared to the two months prior, indicating that young people were indeed waiting until the last minute. Hence Aaron Smith, head of the nonprofit Young Invincibles, whose goal is getting uninsured young people enrolled, says the latest numbers show they are "are on the right track."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
The White House is also planning to up its outreach to young people, including a National Youth Enrollment Day on February 15. That should help drive up youth enrollment above its current level.
And even if that effort fizzles, it's still extremely unlikely the death spiral will materialize if the current enrollment demographics remain unchanged. A December report form the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation concluded that "the financial consequences of lower enrollment among young adults are not as great as conventional wisdom might suggest." Even in a worst-case scenario where young people comprise 25 percent of the overall pool, Kaiser estimated premiums would rise marginally, or "well below the level that would trigger a 'death spiral.'"
There are two months of open enrollment left, so proclaiming dire predictions is a tad premature at this point. And even if the supposedly deadly enrollment demographics remain unchanged come April, and premiums go up, it almost certainly won't imperil the law.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Jon Terbush is an associate editor at TheWeek.com covering politics, sports, and other things he finds interesting. He has previously written for Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, and Business Insider.
-
Magazine interactive crossword - May 3, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - May 3, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Magazine solutions - May 3, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - May 3, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Magazine printables - May 3, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - May 3, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published