5 reasons Wendy Davis just might win the Texas governor's race
It's a longshot, but...
![Wendy Davis](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/7uyWNosGkxod2h4XM942Qm-415-80.jpg)
Yesterday, Wendy Davis, the Texas state senator who entered the national spotlight after her 11-hour filibuster of a strict abortion bill, announced that she was running for governor.
That certainly makes the race more interesting. But can Davis' pink Mizuno running shoes actually carry her to the governor's mansion?
It won't be easy: Texas is still a very conservative state. It did, after all, elect Republicans Rick Perry and George W. Bush as its last two governors. Still, the GOP would be unwise to write her off. Here are five reasons why Davis just might pull off an upset in 2014:
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516-320-80.jpg)
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
1. Rick Perry isn't running
The Republican candidate Davis will likely be facing, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbottt, is no slouch. By July, he had already raised $20 million. He also has a record of dominating his competition in past elections and already leads Davis by eight points, according to a recent poll.
But he's no Rick Perry. Ill-fated presidential run aside, Perry won three consecutive terms as Texas governor and probably could have won a fourth if he had decided to run. In March, polls had Perry beating Abbott handily in a hypothetical primary, 49 percent to 17 percent. Abbott's biggest problem? Name recognition. Davis, on the other hand, has already captivated the national press, and her name recognition in the state doubled after the filibuster.
2. Texas is turning purple
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
The Democratic Party once viewed Texas as a lost cause. Now it's actively trying to turn the state blue, a hope fueled by drastic demographic changes. While most white voters in Texas still vote Republican, the state is home to a growing number of eligible Latino voters, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic.
Here, based on U.S. Census numbers, is how political scientist Robert Stein predicts the Texas electorate will shift through 2025:
Obviously, Davis is running for governor in 2014, not 2025. But the odds aren't as stacked against her as before.
3. There is a precedent
In 1990, two-term Republican Texas Governor Bill Clements stepped down. The man looking to replace him, Clayton Williams, had a healthy war chest and a 27 percent lead on his Democratic challenger. The result? Ann Richards fought her way to a three-point victory in November.
4. It might take only one massive gaffe from Abbott to swing the election
At his West Texas cattle ranch, Williams made a gaffe that many thought sunk his campaign, saying that some rape victims should just "relax and enjoy it.'' Afterwards, polls showed that enough suburban women flocked to Richards to give her the win.
The GOP might want to be worried about history repeating itself in 2014. As TIME's Judith Warner writes, Davis elicits an "almost Pavlovian response from anti-woman blowhards." One example: After her filibuster, Twitter user @jefflegal referred to Davis as "Retard Barbie." That normally wouldn't be news, except that he tweeted it at Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott. His response on Twitter: "Jeff, thanks for your support."
5. She has national appeal
Abbott has a huge advantage when it comes to campaign funds. But Davis has shown she can raise money in a hurry. In the two weeks after her filibuster, she raised $1 million. Yes, that is nowhere near what Abbott has raised, but that was before Davis had even announced she was running for governor.
Nearly half of that $1 million was from donors outside of Texas. If she can continue to stay in the national headlines, and it looks like she has a chance to win, she could find herself the beneficiary of liberals from all over the country.
"In order to win, she probably needs to run a perfect campaign, have Abbott implode, and need at least one credible third party candidate in the race to lower her threshold for victory below 50 percent," Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, told MSNBC.com. Tough, yes, but not impossible.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Keith Wagstaff is a staff writer at TheWeek.com covering politics and current events. He has previously written for such publications as TIME, Details, VICE, and the Village Voice.
-
Big Tech's answer for AI-driven job loss: universal basic income
In The Spotlight A new study reveals the strengths and limitations
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
'I will not be silent' on Gaza, says Kamala Harris
Speed Read In a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Harris supported Israel's right to defend itself while expressing a desire to end Palestinian suffering
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
'How long can TikTok dominate as a social network?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Supreme Court rejects challenge to CFPB
Speed Read The court rejected a conservative-backed challenge to the way the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published