Can Mitch McConnell survive a Tea Party primary challenge?
The Senate's minority leader is hardly a lock for re-election
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will have to fend off challengers from both sides to win re-election.
Matt Bevin, a Louisville businessman and Tea Party candidate, is set to announce this week that he will take on the five-term incumbent in a GOP primary next year. Bevin has already locked up air time and will make a formal announcement Wednesday, before setting off on a three-day blitz around the state to promote his candidacy.
Bevin's entrance into the race raises the stakes for McConnell, a deeply unpopular senator who already appeared to be headed toward a bruising, if ultimately favorable, general election campaign.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A PPP survey in December found that McConnell was the most unpopular senator in the nation; he earned a 37 percent approval rating, with a strong 55 percent majority of registered voters in Kentucky saying they disapproved of his job performance. Those numbers have both ticked down one percentage point since then, according to an April PPP poll, leaving him still highly vulnerable to a strong challenger.
That second poll had another piece of bad news for McConnell, since it showed the Democratic Senate candidate, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, trailing by just a four-point margin.
That's assuming McConnell even makes it through a primary challenge.
That same PPP poll found that while 46 percent of GOP primary voters supported McConnell in a hypothetical primary, 32 percent said they would prefer someone more conservative. Another 22 percent were undecided. A Courier-Journal poll earlier in the year showed Republicans being similarly tepid, with just 34 percent saying they would support McConnell against any challenger, versus 53 percent who said they would first need to see who else ran.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
While McConnell isn't as unpopular within his own party as other former GOP pols who went down in bitter primary challenges — two-thirds of Florida conservatives disliked former Gov. Charlie Crist when he ran for Senate — there is still significant room to his right for a primary challenger to at least make things interesting.
Sensing that space, McConnell has moved in the last year to shore up support with conservatives and Tea Party types. He even hired Sen. Rand Paul's (R-Ky.) former campaign manager, Jesse Benton, to run his operation.
In 2010, Paul successfully toppled former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson in a primary battle. With the backing of Washington Republicans, including McConnell, Grayson led in the early going, though Paul ultimately won the election by characterizing his opponent as a career politician.
Bevin could use that same attack on McConnell, who will be seeking a sixth Senate term in 2014. And given McConnell's grudging deal-making with President Obama and Democrats in the Senate, there would be plenty of fodder to cast McConnell as a more moderate legislator.
McConnell angered conservatives earlier this year for striking a budget deal that raised taxes, and he drew their ire for not killing or watering down the massive immigration bill before it went on to the House. Most recently, some on the right felt betrayed that McConnell agreed last week to move through Obama's cabinet nominees to avert a filibuster showdown.
A lot will depend on Bevin's campaign skills, which have bedeviled first-time Tea Party challengers in the past (see: Christine O'Donnell). Also, with McConnell boasting a $10 million war chest, Bevin will need cash and serious grassroots support. According to Alexander Burns at Politico:
The McConnell camp has already gone on the offensive against Bevin, calling his encroachment a "nuisance." Bevin could very well become much more than that down the road.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Jon Terbush is an associate editor at TheWeek.com covering politics, sports, and other things he finds interesting. He has previously written for Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, and Business Insider.
-
'Voters know Biden and Trump all too well'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Is the Gaza war tearing US university campuses apart?
Today's Big Question Protests at Columbia University, other institutions, pit free speech against student safety
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
DOJ settles with Nassar victims for $138M
Speed Read The settlement includes 139 sexual abuse victims of the former USA Gymnastics doctor
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published