Immigration reform: Can Rubio sell it to the GOP?

Marco Rubio is playing a dangerous game on the immigration reform bill, said Manu Raju and Carrie Budoff Brown in Politico.com. The Florida senator is one of the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” senators pushing for comprehensive reform that would give legal status to 11 million immigrants—but at the same time, he’s “trying to woo conservative activists” who oppose the legislation. Rubio said this week that “95, 96 percent of the bill is in perfect shape.” But he has held back from explicitly supporting the Gang of Eight’s plan. The bill’s fate will be decided by Rubio’s amendment to tighten border security, said Greg Sargent in WashingtonPost.com. To succeed, he’ll have to satisfy hard-liners demanding statistical proof that the border has been effectively closed before any legalization process begins. Democrats, on the other hand, won’t support any bill that would block legalization if some arbitrary border metrics aren’t satisfied. Clearly, Rubio—a Cuban-American who has presidential aspirations—has “a very tough needle to thread.”

How much tougher can border control get? said the Chicago Tribune in an editorial. The federal government spent a record high of $17 billion on border enforcement last year, and illegal crossings are at a 40-year low. The Gang of Eight bill would spend an additional $6.5 billion on border agents and security measures. In addition, the reform legislation would create a long, steep path to citizenship, requiring immigrants here without permission to prove they can speak English, and to pay fines and back taxes—requirements that will take a decade or more to fulfill. But all that’s not enough for hard-liners like Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and John Cornyn (R‑Texas), who have proposed “unreasonable and prohibitively expensive” measures such as 6,500 extra border personnel, and a $25 billion biometric border-control system that would take years to develop. These Republicans’ real goal is to “kill the bill, not make it better.”

Let’s hope they succeed, said NationalReview.com. If the Gang of Eight’s bill is signed into law, 11 million illegal immigrants get legal status “immediately and irreversibly.” How does blanket amnesty serve this country’s interests? The last thing our economy needs is a few million more unskilled workers competing with Americans for scarce jobs. By “playing Hamlet,” Rubio is trying to convince fellow Republicans he shares their concerns. But he’s just trying to create “some fig leaf of an amendment” on border enforcement to give Republicans cover to vote for it. They shouldn’t abandon their principles in some ill-fated attempt to woo Hispanic voters. Is Rubio “being played or is he playing us?” said Erick Erickson in RedState.com. Either way, this is bad legislation, letting those who broke our laws become full citizens and claim entitlement benefits—thus expanding the welfare state. “No more games; it must be opposed.”

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The bill will pass the Senate with or without Rubio, said Albert R. Hunt in Bloomberg.com. The Republican leadership is keenly aware that Latinos rejected the party en masse in 2012, and sees immigration reform as its best hope for a “get-out-of-jail moment with the fastest-growing slice of the U.S. electorate.” About a dozen Republicans will vote for a bill that reaches a sensible compromise on border security, giving it the necessary 60 votes “even in the unlikely event Rubio peels off.” The question then becomes “what will John Boehner do?” said Jonathan Chait in NYMag.com. If the Senate does approve a bill, the House majority leader must once again choose between two conflicting factions within his caucus. The GOP establishment strongly supports immigration reform—not just to attract Latino voters, but also as a pro-business, “legalized channel for low-wage labor.” But the House’s Tea Party faction wants no part of it. If the hard-liners convince the party’s base that the bill will expand the “hated Obamacare” by including millions of immigrants, the opposition will harden—and Boehner will have to choose whether to lead his party, or capitulate to its extremists.

The decision couldn’t be more important, said Jonathan Tobin in CommentaryMagazine.com.Reforming immigration will not automatically repair the GOP’s ruinous disconnect with Hispanic voters, “but any effort to do so must start there.” If, on the other hand, Republicans continue to tell Hispanics “to go to the devil,” then liberals’ “triumphalist predictions of permanent Democratic rule will turn out to be true.”