Will China make North Korea back down?

China has reportedly reached a deal with the U.S. over sanctions to punish North Korea for its nuclear test last month. Beijing is insisting that any new measures aiming to force it to rein in its nuclear program and long-range rocket research must be "prudent and moderate," so they won't just make tensions worse between world leaders and the Hermit Kingdom's mysterious and bellicose leadership. North Korea's young new dictator, Kim Jong Un, is threatening to scrap the 60-year-old ceasefire with South Korea if the U.N. Security Council approves new sanctions. Will China take a strong enough stand to get Pyongyang to cool the war-like rhetoric?

It certainly looks as if Kim's intransigence is going to force Beijing's hand — probably sooner rather than later. "Normally, a country with only one friend in the world would take heed when that friend joins everyone else in imposing sanctions," says Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. "Not the Kim regime, though." The fact that it responded to a "relatively blunt message" from its last defender on the planet by threatening to go to war suggests that China, which is afraid that military action in neighboring North Korea could spark a wave of refugees, is going to be forced to bring the hammer down.

Not everyone expects China to follow through, though. China is North Korea's only ally, says Peter Ford at The Christian Science Monitor, so it's certainly in a unique sense to talk sense to Pyongyang, or instill a healthy dose of fear in Kim. But world leaders have been trying for 20 years to get Beijing to help "deter North Korea from pursuing its dream of possessing nuclear weapons," with no luck. Unfortunately, despite China's stern words in recent days, Ford suggests, it's probably still not ready to really get tough.

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Nevertheless, some experts say, there's reason to believe China might finally be coming around. Some influential voices in China are arguing "that China should reconsider its alliance with the country," says Walter Russell Mead at The American Interest. "China was saturated with anti-North Korean sentiment" after last month's nuclear test — North Korea's third — "with Chinese citizens protesting across the country. Now the new president Xi Jinping is even saying that has government will explore new policies towards the country. Either a very deep game is being played, or Pyongyang has cause to worry about Chinese support."