Why Democrats think they can retake the House in 2014
They don't think voters will scratch their six-year itch
Two-term presidents historically suffer from voters' six-year itch, when the president’s party loses a substantial number of House and Senate seats after a half dozen years in office.
But Democrats think it might be different in 2014.
National Journal obtained a confidential memo from Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) which argues that his party is in a much stronger political position to start the 2014 campaign than in either of the last two cycles.
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Israel directly rebuts the conventional wisdom that House Republicans have a near-lock on their majority at least until the next redistricting of congressional seats in 10 years.
Writes Israel: "Redistricting has empowered the worst elements of the Republican Party, amplifying the extremist echo chamber and making the tea party Republican congress toxic to voters. Republicans redrew already-safe members into even more Republican districts, driving control of their party more to their base, forcing more primaries, and making it less likely that they can put forward a party agenda that appeals to Independents."
Democrats, who won a net eight seats last year, need to win 17 more to retake control of the House. It’s a tough goal but, they are energized with new promises from President Obama to raise money, campaign vigorously, and even help recruit candidates.
Last year, Obama focused exclusively on his re-election campaign. But now, his former campaign operation — rechristened as Organizing for Action — has pledged to bring its grassroots forces to winning more seats for Democrats in the midterm elections.
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Whether Israel is spinning a best-case scenario to buck up his House colleagues remains to be seen. But a deeply unpopular Republicans Party facing an energized Democratic Party and a president intent on sealing his legacy will certainly make it an exciting midterm election campaign.
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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political websites. He also runs Wonk Wire and the Political Dictionary. Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and COO of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. senator and governor. Goddard is also co-author of You Won — Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including The Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Christian Science Monitor. Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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