Is Mitt Romney taking over in key swing states?
Fresh polls show a post-debate bounce in several battlegrounds, mirroring Mitt's impressive improvement nationwide
The latest polls suggest that Mitt Romney's post-debate surge is spreading to some of the big swing states expected to decide the November election. NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist surveys released Thursday show Romney pulling narrowly ahead of President Obama in Virginia, catching up to him in Florida, and closing Obama's lead to six percentage points in Ohio, which some consider a make-or-break contest for Romney. Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times polls show Romney edging ahead in Colorado, and gaining in Wisconsin. Bottom line: "Obama has lost his advantage across the electoral map," says Grace Wyler at Business Insider. Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos is now so certain Romney will sweep Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina that he has stopped polling in those states. Is Romney now the frontrunner in these key battlegrounds, or are pundits prematurely writing off Obama?
Romney looks awfully strong: Almost all the new battleground polling "looks bad for Barack Obama," says Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. In fact, his prospects might be even be worse than they look. NBC's survey was "ridiculously tilted toward Democrats," giving them an 11-percentage point turnout advantage in Ohio when in reality Republicans outnumbered them at the polls in 2010. Regardless, the trend is clear: In swing states, undecided voters are finally making up their minds, and they're going for Romney.
"Bounce continues in new swing-state polling"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
But he still has an uphill climb in Ohio: Obama "might have lost some ground," says Aaron Blake at The Washington Post, but Romney's new momentum hasn't really given him an easier Electoral College path to the presidency. Obama is still "holding relatively firm in Ohio, which is a huge state in the presidential race. No Republican has won the presidency without" it. Eighteen percent of Ohio respondents have voted already, and 63 percent of those picked Obama. "If that number is close to accurate," Romney's election day challenge is as daunting as ever.
"Polls show little change in swing states, despite Romney's momentum"
Take a deep breath. Predictions this far out are worthless: It's one thing to stop polling in places like California and Texas, says Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway, "which are obviously going to go for Obama and Romney respectively." But in many battleground states, anything can still happen between now and Election Day, "as we learned from last week's debate." Even after Romney's surge, the candidates are essentially tied in Florida and Virginia, and there's hardly any data on North Carolina. "It seems absurd to call the race at this point" — in any battleground state.
"Pollster prematurely calls Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina for Romney"
Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Today's political cartoons - November 2, 2024
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - anti-fascism, early voter turnout, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Geoff Capes obituary: shot-putter who became the World’s Strongest Man
In the Spotlight The 'mighty figure' was a two-time Commonwealth Champion and world-record holder
By The Week UK Published
-
Israel attacks Iran: a 'limited' retaliation
Talking Point Iran's humiliated leaders must decide how to respond to Netanyahu's measured strike
By The Week UK Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published