The 8 Senate races you should pay attention to

Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), who pulled off a historic upset in 2010 when he won the late Ted Kennedy&#039;s seat, faces a tough re-election battle against progressive hero Elizabeth Warren.

(Image credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

last updated 8 January 2015

The marquee race of 2012, of course, is the hard-fought battle for the White House. But 33 Senate seats are also up for grabs this November, and along with them, control of the upper chamber. Currently, the Senate has 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and two independents who typically caucus with the Left. So while fewer than a dozen of this year's Senate races are truly competitive, the GOP only needs a net gain of four seats to seize control of the chamber for the first time since 2006 — the last time this year's incumbents faced voters. Ominously for the Democrats, they are defending 23 seats to the GOP's 10, and several high-profile retirements are making things even harder. Here, a look at the eight races you should have on your radar:

1. Maine

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Keys to the race: With King as frontrunner, this is less a Senate race than a "silent auction," says Jennifer Duffy at The Cook Political Report. King is a former Democrat and leans slightly to the left, but he won't say which party he would side with if he wins. Most handicappers predict he would align himself with the Democrats, "but he suggested recently that he might caucus with Republicans if they are in the majority," says Aaron Blake at The Washington Post. "Cue intrigue."

Keys to the race: Massachusetts is a very blue state that is expected to be an easy win for Obama, says The Washington Post's Blake, but Brown is tied or even with Warren because "a majority of voters just, well, like Brown." Both he and Warren have enviably high favorability ratings, but while "people admire Warren... they want to hang out — or have a beer — with Brown." If he can make the race about personality, not issues, he's got a good shot at keeping his seat.

Keys to the race: Kerrey hasn't run for office in 18 years, and spent the past decade in New York City as president of The New School university ("insert image of overly chic reading glasses and cappuccino here," says Jennifer Steinhauer in The New York Times). He's trailing both Republicans by double digits in recent polls, and in the presidential race, Nebraska is surely going to vote for Obama's Republican challenger. The only thing that gives the Democrats "a puncher's chance in the Cornhusker State" is Kerrey's name recognition, the uninspiring GOP field, and the potentially nasty fight between Bruning and Stenberg.

Keys to the race: The Tester-Rehberg contest is, oddly, turning into one of the most expensive in the country so far, with outside groups spending almost $3 million on TV ads — mostly attack ads, says Tim Murphy at Mother Jones. "And in Montana, your $3 million goes a long, long way." With so much money pouring into a small media market, "this race will come down to a simple question," says The Washington Post's Blake: "Has Tester established enough of an independent identity with voters in the state to avoid being morphed into a President Obama clone by Republican ad makers?"

Keys to the race: Conrad's retirement was met with joy by the state and national GOP, but we're now hearing whispers "that Berg just isn't a particularly good candidate," says Sabato's Crystal Ball. Republicans seem "legitimately worried that he might boot away what should be a relatively easy pickup opportunity." Democrats, meanwhile, "believe that this is their sleeper race of the cycle, arguing that Heitkamp is underrated," says The Washington Post's Blake. But she'll probably have to outperform Obama by 10 percentage points to upset Berg.

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