The Supreme Court sours on ObamaCare: How did legal experts get it so wrong?

Supporters of President Obama's health-care reform law were confident the court would rule it constitutional. It appears the predictions were off the mark

Solicitor General Donald Verrilli, pictured in 2008
(Image credit: Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

A week ago, supporters of the Affordable Care Act and legal scholars seemed certain that the Supreme Court would find the law constitutional, by a 6-3 or even a 7-2 vote. But after three days of contentious hearings this week, such forecasts seem presumptuous: The five members of the court's conservative majority all apparently doubt whether Congress has the authority to force (nearly) every American to buy health insurance (the "individual mandate"), an essential provision of President Obama's health-care overhaul. How did so many people get their predictions so wrong? Here, four theories:

1. Obama's lawyer unexpectedly blew it

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