Tuesday's Deep South primaries: 4 possible outcomes
Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich are running neck and neck and neck in Alabama and Mississippi. Will the South knock anyone out of the race?
"Tuesday's Republican primaries in Alabama and Mississippi may be the most suspenseful so far," says Mark Blumenthal at The Huffington Post. Polls shows "a three-way dead heat" in Alabama between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich, with Romney and Gingrich essentially tied in Mississippi. Here, a look at four potential outcomes of Tuesday's races, and what they might mean for the GOP presidential race:
1. If Gingrich wins both races, Santorum is in trouble
After pinning his hopes on a "Southern strategy," Newt really needs to win Mississippi and Alabama to prove he's a contender in the GOP race. And remember, says Robert Costa at National Review, "Gingrich's challenge is not only to beat Romney, but also to halt Santorum's rise," since both the not-Romneys want a clear one-on-one race with the frontrunner. Indeed, "if Santorum loses to Gingrich on Tuesday," says Paul Steinhauser at CNN, it undercuts his main argument for staying in the race: "That he's the conservative alternative to Romney."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
2. If Santorum wins both races, it's the end of Gingrich
Unlike Gingrich, Santorum doesn't necessarily have to win both states to remain a viable candidate. But he really wants to, says CNN's Candy Crowley. Team Santorum is hoping a pair of Tuesday victories will "blow up the Gingrich campaign's Southern strategy and muscle Newt out of the race." Winning in the heart of the Deep South would also build on Santorum's victories last week in Tennessee and Oklahoma, showing he has appeal outside of Midwestern caucuses.
3. If Santorum and Gingrich each take a state, Romney wins
"Romney's preferred scenario, as time drags on and the November election draws nearer, is to get this nomination over with already," says Michael Crowley at TIME. But his second-best option is for both Gingrich and Santorum to stay in the race, splitting the conservative vote while Mitt quietly racks up enough delegates to win the nomination. "The scenario that most people are discussing right now — the possible departure of Newt Gingrich, if he bombs in Tuesday's Southern primaries — is the one Romney should fear most." Mitt would surely rather see his conservative rivals each win a race on Tuesday, ensuring that the Right won't unite behind a single non-Romney candidate.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
4. If Romney wins either race, it's game over
"Romney has a shot to win both states," says Jonathan Martin at Politico, and wouldn't it be a fitting end to the "topsy-turvy GOP primary" if "the Mormon Yankee who thinks cheese grits are a revelation effectively seals the nomination in Alabama and Mississippi"? Yes, if Romney "adds a win in either Alabama or Mississippi," GOP strategist Gentry Collins tells CNN, that's enough to "shut his opponents' Southern strategy down." The best part for Romney is that nobody really expects him to win, says Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post. So a victory in either state would be "an expectations-altering sort of win," washing away doubts about his candidacy "for the moment if not forever."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
Why is Bluey such a cultural phenomenon?
In the Spotlight Kids are obsessed — but parents get just as much out of the show, if not more
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, The Week US Published
-
Is it actually economical to fly basic economy?
The Explainer Airlines have placed so many restrictions on basic economy, you may wonder if it's even worth the savings anymore
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
So bad, so good: the best worst movies
The Week Recommends These films are as enjoyable as they are terrible
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published