Why the GOP race won't end on Super Tuesday
In past elections, presidential frontrunners have clinched the nomination on the biggest day of the primary season. Mitt Romney won't be so lucky
Historically, Super Tuesday has been the day when many a leading presidential candidate locked up his party's nomination. But that won't be the case this year, experts say, even though Mitt Romney is expected to extend his lead in the GOP delegate hunt as 10 states make their presidential preferences known. Why is the grueling GOP campaign likely to drag on? Here's what you should know:
First off: Who is likely to win Super Tuesday?
The numbers will probably favor the man who's already out front, Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor is expected to win contests in Virginia, Massachusetts, and Vermont. He also has a strong chance to win in Ohio, a crucial general-election swing state where he's running neck-and-neck with his main rival, Rick Santorum. Judging by the last polls before Super Tuesday, Romney is poised to haul in 224 delegates today, says Nate Silver at The New York Times, more than half of the 437 delegates up for grabs. Only about 300 delegates had been allocated in the contests leading up to Super Tuesday.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Won't that make him the presumptive nominee?
Not necessarily. The other three candidates will pile up delegates, too. Rick Santorum, the odds-on favorite in Oklahoma, looks likely to snare in the neighborhood of 75 delegates, while Newt Gingrich could pick up roughly 90, thanks mostly to an expected win in his home state, Georgia. And Rep. Ron Paul could pick up his first victory in the Alaska caucuses, helping him collect 25 delegates. The four-way split would give everyone a share of the Super Tuesday prize, and fresh reasons for staying in the race.
Why is Super Tuesday so inconclusive this year?
For one thing, the GOP decided to spread out its calendar, pushing some big contests later in the primary season. The party also ordered states to award delegates according to each candidate's share of the vote instead of giving the whole pot to the statewide winner. That proportional allocation makes it mathematically difficult for Romney to amass the 1,144 delegates he needs to seal the nomination until late May at the earliest.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Any other reasons?
Yes. With deep-pocketed super PACs behind them, Gingrich and Santorum can remain competitive with the better-financed Romney campaign well into the spring, if they choose. And Paul could be in for a boost in March thanks to a flurry of caucuses, where his energized supporters tend to show up in disproportionate numbers.
Does that make Super Tuesday meaningless?
Of course not. But at the same time, it's certainly not the deciding factor it often has been in past presidential cycles, says Peter Hamby at CNN. In the end, expect Super Tuesday to "harden the emerging outlines of the Republican race." Actually, Super Tuesday might settle more than you think, says Michael A. Memoli at the Chicago Tribune. While Romney can't officially clinch the nomination, he "can effectively put the contest out of reach" for everyone else if he takes a big majority of delegates. Up to now, everyone has been talking about which candidate has the momentum, say Michael Falcone and Amy Walter at ABC News. But in the delegate hunt, "math trumps momentum" every time.
Sources: ABC News, Chicago Tribune, CNN, NY Times (2), Wash. Post
-
Kate Summerscale's 6 favorite true crime books about real murder cases
Feature The best-selling author recommends works by Helen Garner, Gwen Adshead, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Team of bitter rivals
Opinion Will internal tensions tear apart Trump's unlikely alliance?
By Theunis Bates Published
-
6 elegant homes in the Mediterranean style
Feature Featuring an award-winning mansion in Colorado and an Alhambra palace-inspired home in Washington
By The Week Staff Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published