2012 GOP race: Will Florida cause 'total chaos'?
The Sunshine State wants to hold its primary in January — which could set off a chain reaction of calendar changes in other early-voting states
Christmas in Iowa? Maybe, at least for the Republican Party's presidential candidates. The Hawkeye State, which is scheduled to host its first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses in early February, might reschedule if a top Florida lawmaker makes good on his Tuesday threat to leapfrog Iowa by moving Florida's presidential primary up to Jan. 31. If Florida goes through with it, the switch could "produce total chaos" by encouraging Iowa and other early-voting states to move up their dates — drastically shortening the campaign season. How will this play out? Here, four possibilities:
1. If Florida shifts, so will four other states
Florida's decision would "trigger a flood of calendar moves" by other states looking to "shore up their relevance" in the nominating process, says Peter Hamby at CNN. That means Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina — the four states that traditionally hold the first contests. (Currently, Iowa is scheduled for Feb. 6, followed by New Hampshire on Feb. 14, Nevada on Feb. 18, and South Carolina on Feb. 28.) Iowa has pledged to go first no matter what, and "all four states have pledged to move and work as a block," says Lynda Waddington at The Washington Independent.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
2. And that would "set off a chain reaction"
States are "desperate for the kind of boost that swarms of politicians, activists, reporters, and hangers-on can give to the businesses," says Rick Moran at American Thinker. So in addition to the traditional "first four," watch for Colorado, Georgia, and Missouri — which have all flirted already with moving up their dates — to try and leapfrog Florida, which could then push Iowa and New Hampshire into December. The Republican candidates and their staffs will "likely be spending part of the holiday season in hotel rooms in Des Moines," says Hamby.
3. The Republican National Committee might rewrite its rules
The RNC prohibits states (other than the first four) from holding primaries or caucuses before March 6, says Zeke Miller at Business Insider. Break the rule, and the RNC strips a state of half its delegates at the party's nominating convention — greatly diluting a state's influence in selecting the party's nominee. But now, says Patrick O'Connor at The Wall Street Journal, the RNC may have to reconsider. Florida is arguably the most important swing state in a general election, and Tampa is hosting the GOP's 2012 convention. It's unlikely that the RNC would risk alienating the critical Sunshine State by enforcing this rule.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
4. But Florida would finally have the influence it deserves
Florida is the most important swing state, says Dan Amira at New York. Why should it "wait in line behind states like South Carolina and New Hampshire"? The current system allows one candidate to potentially dominate the first four contests in less important states, and maybe even effectively wrap up the nomination before Florida gets a chance to weigh in. That's as foolish as the Yankees saving their ace pitcher for game four of a best-of-five playoff series. "If we were Florida, we might throw a tantrum, too."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
Why is Tesla stumbling?
In the Spotlight More competition, confusion about the future and a giant pay package for Elon Musk
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
How Taylor Swift changed copyright negotiations in music
under the radar The success of Taylor's Version rerecordings has put new pressure on record labels
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Job scams are increasingly common. Here's what to look out for.
The Explainer You should never pay for an application or give out your personal info before being hired
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published