A power vacuum opens in Yemen

What happened

Control of Yemen was up for grabs this week after President Ali Abdullah Saleh was rushed to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment of serious wounds and burns suffered in a rocket attack on his palace. Saleh, 69, was burned on 40 percent of his body and face, and had shrapnel wounds to his chest, according to Saudi officials, but is now “stable.” In an audio recording broadcast on state TV, the president blamed the attack on forces loyal to his main rival, tribal leader Sadiq al-Ahmar, who two weeks ago began battling government troops in the capital of Sanaa, after Saleh reneged on a deal to step down. The government said Vice President Abdu Rabo Mansour Hadi “is the acting president” until Saleh returns, while behind the scenes, negotiations resumed for the ruling party to surrender power.

The president’s surprise exit was cheered by thousands of pro-democracy protesters who have been camped out in Sanaa’s central square since February, demanding an end to his 33-year presidency. But while the Obama administration has been urging Saleh to step down, U.S. officials expressed fear that the terrorist group al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula would benefit if the government collapsed and Yemen became a failed state like Somalia. “The al Qaida piece of it is incredibly dangerous, and made that much more dangerous in the ongoing chaos,” said Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on a visit to the region. AQAP, fronted by the American-born Islamist Anwar al-Awlaki, has been linked to several terror plots aimed at the U.S., including the Christmas Day 2009 “underwear” bombing attempt on a Detroit flight, and last year’s plot to sneak explosives onto U.S.-bound cargo jets.

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What the editorials said

The Arab Spring has claimed another dictator, said the San Francisco Chronicle. Saleh tried every trick in the “autocrat’s playbook”—from “vaguely stated reforms” to military attacks on protesters—to stay in office. But as in Tunisia and Egypt, mass street protests proved to be an irresistible force. Don’t mistake Yemen for Tunisia or Egypt, said the Saudi Arabian Arab News. Yemen’s revolution has degenerated into a “free-for-all of competing militia tribes and powerful families and confederations.” In the chaos, “more than 200 al Qaida fighters took over the capital of the southern province of Abyan, and declared it an Islamic emirate after they ‘cleansed’ it of the ‘agents of Americans.’” There’s a real danger that al Qaida may “use the power vacuum to its advantage,” establishing regions of Yemen as a sanctuary for terrorists.

Only “a massive injection of aid” could stop Yemen from becoming a “failed state,” said the London Independent. Saleh’s regime crumbled because it ran out of money to buy the loyalty of key tribes. If the West lets Yemen disintegrate, the country will become a seething stew of “disappointed ex-clients, democrats, separatists, and Islamists.”

What the columnists said

Yemenis are celebrating Saleh’s departure, said Jeb Boone in Time, “but should they be so happy?” Loyalist troops under the command of Saleh’s nephew, who are “known for having itchy trigger fingers,” still patrol the streets, pointing heavy Russian-made machine guns at anything that moves. Saleh’s son and heir apparent, Ahmed, is still in the country, and the government insists Saleh is coming back soon. No one has any idea what happens next.

The Saleh government’s counterterrorism forces have already stopped their pursuit of AQAP, said Peter Finn in The Washington Post. As a result, the U.S. might decide “to act unilaterally.” Don’t be surprised to see a surge in U.S. drone attacks in Yemen in coming weeks.

If Saleh’s government falls, said Daniel Pipes in National Review, Yemen becomes a true al Qaida sanctuary, “leading to yet more attacks being planned inside Yemen for execution outside the country.” There’s a second nightmare scenario: total anarchy. Even before the recent anti-government uprising, impoverished Yemenis faced “cataclysmic” water and food shortages. If all order breaks down, it “could prompt a mass, unprecedented, and tragic exodus out of Yemen,” involving millions of people—a true humanitarian crisis.