Massive protests shake Iran’s government

What happened

Hundreds of thousands of Iranians mounted several days of protests in the streets of Tehran and other cities this week, posing the biggest challenge to Iran’s government since Islamic revolutionaries overthrew the shah in 1979. The demonstrations were sparked by Iran’s presidential election last week, which the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proclaimed had been won in a landslide by hard-line incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Amid growing claims that the tally was riddled with irregularities, Khamenei offered a partial recount. But defeated candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, a moderate reformer, demanded new elections, and the protests gained strength, in open defiance of a government decree for citizens to stay home.

Protesters deployed Twitter, cell phones, and websites to coordinate action and distribute dramatic images across the world. The government responded by cracking down on journalists and disrupting cellular and Internet access. The regime’s Basij militia killed at least seven protesters, and news outlets reported deaths and beatings of students at Tehran University, where the militia raided dormitories.

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President Obama tried to walk a delicate line, voicing support for democracy but saying the U.S. should avoid appearing to “meddle” in Iran’s politics. He also said that the differences between the incumbent and challenger “may not be as great as advertised.” Iran nevertheless accused the U.S. of interfering in its affairs.

What the editorials said

Obama just got that “3 a.m. phone call” that Hillary Clinton warned about, said The Wall Street Journal. And her fears about his “inexperience and instincts” were realized. Obama’s “hands-off strategy” was sensible before the vote. But we’re now witnessing a death match between a ruthless dictatorship and people risking their lives for democracy. “The president who likes to say that ‘words matter’ refuses to utter a word of support to Iran’s people.”

History suggests that “Obama’s arm’s-length approach” is wise, said USA Today. When President Bush “lambasted the Iranian regime” in 2003 for cracking down on students, Iran’s “hard-liners seized on Bush’s remarks to claim that the protests were a U.S. plot.” Soon, “the protests fizzled.” If the U.S. wants to help the Iranian people, it should avoid becoming “such an easy scapegoat.”

What the columnists said

“This election was never really about the two main candidates,” said Ali Ansari in the London Guardian. It was about whether Iran’s “republican elements” should be tolerated or “discarded altogether.” Even though the candidates, including Mousavi, were preapproved by the mullahs, the election nevertheless “raised expectations” of change. There seems to be credible evidence of the over-counting of Ahmadinejad’s vote and suppression of the opposition’s. If the government cannot convince the people that the election was legitimate, these wounds “may not heal at all.”

The mullahs may have “won” this bogus election, said Pat Buchanan in Townhall.com, but they are “losing the Iranian people.” It’s not just the demonstrations that prove this point. This is the latest in a string of Iranian elections in which the candidate who promised “reconciliation with the West and an easing of social strictures” won in a landslide among students. “Those are the future leaders of Iran.” The election not only revealed “the character of the regime.” It showed that for freedom lovers, “time is on our side.”

The people may already be able to claim a victory, said Abbas Milani in The New Republic Online. Even former government ministers are “demanding new elections.” The “majestic power of large peaceful crowds, brought together by the power of technologies beyond the regime’s control,” is now shaking Khamenei’s two-decade hold on power. Either he will bend to the protests, or he will have to ask the military to put down this uprising. Either way, he will not emerge “with his supremacy intact.”

What next?

As The Week was going to press, Mousavi called for new protests to mourn those who had been “martyred.” By wrapping the protests in religious coloration, reminiscent of the 1979 revolution, Mousavi may have helped assure their continuation. Some analysts said an aggressive crackdown was imminent. “I expect the situation to polarize further,” said University of Michigan Middle East expert Juan Cole. “Given the character of this regime, I think it is a matter of time before they roll in the tanks.”