Why Canada's election shocker wasn't all that surprising

A progressive party swept Canada's most conservative province. But it's less of a political earthquake than you might think.

Alberta New Democratic Party leader Rachel Notley.
(Image credit: (REUTERS/Dan Riedlhuber))

The Canadian province of Alberta was founded in 1905. Since then, the governing party has changed only four times, and only twice since 1935. So Tuesday's election, knocking the Progressive Conservative Party out of power for the first time in 44 years, would be a political earthquake under any circumstances. Even more surprising, however, was the identity of the winner. The successful challenge to the dynastic leadership of Canada's most conservative province did not come from the right but from the left, in the form of new premier Rachel Notley and the traditionally democratic socialist label of the New Democratic Party.

As the brilliant Canadian journalist Jeet Heer puts it, "Imagine if a political party made up of Chris Hayes, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren swept into power in Texas and Mississippi." For reasons I will discuss, this is somewhat overstated, but it still captures the basic flavor of the event. Even a few months ago, the idea of the NDP — which held four out of 87 seats in Alberta's legislative assembly and got less than 10 percent of the popular vote in the 2012 elections — capturing an absolute majority might have seemed fantastical, no matter how unpopular the government of Premier Jim Prentice was. How did this happen?

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Scott Lemieux

Scott Lemieux is a professor of political science at the College of Saint Rose in Albany, N.Y., with a focus on the Supreme Court and constitutional law. He is a frequent contributor to the American Prospect and blogs for Lawyers, Guns and Money.