China's market mayhem
Everything you need to know, in four paragraphs
Here's everything you need to know, from all perspectives, in four paragraphs:
The numbers coming out of China in recent weeks have been "mind-boggling," said Larry Elliott at The Guardian. After share prices shot up by 150 percent over the past year, Chinese markets have been on a dizzying descent, losing more than 30 percent of their value in the space of the past month. Millions of ordinary Chinese, many of whom borrowed money to buy stocks during the bull run, face "potentially ruinous losses." Fearing a historic market collapse that would rival the likes of "Dutch tulips, the South Sea Bubble, and the Wall Street Crash," Beijing has stepped in with extraordinary measures to halt the rout — cutting interest rates, halting trading for hundreds of listed companies, and buying up stocks with public money. "In the short term at least, it seems to have done the trick." But the worry is that the market turbulence is "indicative of a deeper malaise."
"Do not expect any quick return to normality," said Craig Stephen at MarketWatch. Investor confidence has been "rattled," as has the credibility of Beijing, which has promised for several years to let market forces and consumer spending play a larger role in the economy without interference. The government's "bizarre interventions" raise the question of whether the Chinese economy is worse off than reported. The ups and downs of the stock market "have little to do with the ups and downs of the real economy," said Jeff Spross at The Week. Beijing knows that, and the fact that Chinese leaders pumped money into the markets anyway shows they are willing to do almost anything to avoid "political embarrassment" and maintain their grip on power.
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"Have we hit peak China?" asked Michael Auslin at The Wall Street Journal. Economists are now beginning to see China less as an engine of global growth and more as a "source of worries." Beijing has steadily lowered GDP growth targets in recent years, and even these lower estimates likely mask the true slowdown in production and economic activity. The country is also struggling with enormous debt and a tightening labor market. It might be time to prepare for a "falling China."
"An epic economic collapse in a giant Asian economy isn't necessarily a huge problem for the United States," said Matthew Yglesias at Vox. When Japan suffered a "lost decade" in the 1990s, America had its most robust growth in a generation. Nor is continued growth in China "particularly significant to American businesses": Total U.S. exports to China account for just 0.7 percent of U.S. GDP. What would matter is if Chinese leaders "lose their appetite for overhauling the economy," said Robert J. Samuelson at The Washington Post. Transitioning to a consumer-led economy is exceedingly difficult, but in China's case, it would "be better for China and everyone else." The country would be more insulated from global instability and its cheap exports less threatening to other countries. Are leaders in Beijing willing to stay the course, given the latest setbacks? Whatever they decide will have "huge consequences for the rest of the world."
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