The danger of certainty

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" Though this quote is often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, its provenance is uncertain. There's no question, however, about its instructive value. The world is confoundingly complex, and will make a fool of anyone who ignores contrary new information. But with our country so politically polarized, the process of adjusting to new facts — so essential to sound public policy — rarely occurs. The mass shooting in San Bernardino last week should have served as a challenge to all prevailing assumptions about ISIS, domestic terrorism, and gun-control laws. Yet partisans and presidential candidates immediately seized on the shootings as proof of what they already knew: We need to ban assault rifles. No, we need to ban all Muslim immigrants. We should send 20,000 or more ground troops to wipe out ISIS as soon as possible. No, a U.S. ground force in Syria is exactly what ISIS wants. And so on.

Every news event now triggers a ritualized dance of the same, hardened opinions. In the outrage machine of partisan TV networks, talk radio, Twitter, and blogs, any reconsideration of past views and policies is greeted with derisive jeering, as if it were proof of weakness and failure instead of sanity. So everyone remains dug into their ideological bunkers. For a change, wouldn't it be encouraging to hear a gun-rights advocate say: I'm all for the Second Amendment, but to reduce the death toll of mass shootings, let's ban magazines of more than 10 rounds and institute strong, universal background checks? Wouldn't it be reassuring to hear President Obama say: I can now see that a long war of attrition against ISIS isn't sufficient — we need an accelerated new strategy? Alas, it won't happen. There's a word for the kind of smug certainty that sneers at all evidence: Trumpism. There's a little of The Donald in all of us.

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