Why don't betting markets believe in Donald Trump?

Bettors are very hesitant to put their money where Trump's mouth is

Don't gamble with history
(Image credit: REUTERS/Jonathan Drake)

What do gamblers know that pollsters don't about the Republican presidential race?

With the exception of a few days in early November, Donald Trump has consistently led the polling averages since late July. What's more, Trump's current 33 percent vote share and nearly 17-point lead over the runner-up — currently Ted Cruz — are his high-water marks. No wonder he spends as much time talking about polls as policy. With just six weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, the strength and stamina of Trump's numbers — like his health, apparently — are astonishingly excellent.

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James Pethokoukis

James Pethokoukis is the DeWitt Wallace Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he runs the AEIdeas blog. He has also written for The New York Times, National Review, Commentary, The Weekly Standard, and other places.