Donald Trump will clarify his increasingly muddled policy on immigration in a "major" speech Wednesday. But what matters isn't so much the position he outlines, (which he'll probably change again), it's the fact that on his signature issue, the one that defined him and drew so many angry Republicans to his cause, he can say completely different things almost every time he opens his mouth and yet not lose his supporters.
If it's not about building walls and tossing out undocumented immigrants, Trumpism is about nothing at all, at least nothing having to do with anything he might actually do as president. His candidacy has transcended substance entirely. This isn't a "pivot," it's a kind of rapture, where Trump loses all flesh and becomes a being of pure affect.
And weirdly enough, it seems to be just fine with his supporters. The reluctant ones are reassured by the fact that Trump has no beliefs, because that means that if he were to become president he'd turn over policymaking to Republicans in Congress and those who fill out his executive branch, the same people who would serve in those offices under any Republican. The policy results would thus be much the same as they would for any Republican president.
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And his ardent supporters, who were so taken with Trump's bombast and bluster? They're not abandoning him either, despite the fact that you could argue they've been duped. After all, they were sold a fantasy of action, of drama, of revenge. They played out the scenarios in their heads, thinking of Muslims finally kept out of America, watching as the (humane but firm!) deportation force sweeps through town to the cheers of the locals, purging their communities of the dark foreigners with their strange tongues so that the nation can be restored to its former purity — made great again, as it were.
But now Trump has basically abandoned the Muslim ban, and his repeated insistence that he'd deport every last one of the 11 million undocumented people in America is falling by the wayside too. Early reports said that Trump will be taking a "secure the borders first" position, after which it will determined what to do with those 11 million. Which is exactly the position of the hated Republican "establishment" (not to mention a handy way to avoid the question of the undocumented, since you can always say that the border is not yet secure).
No less a personage than Rush Limbaugh, still the most important figure in conservative media, said Monday that he always knew Trump's promise of deportations was just something to tell the rubes. An angry caller pointed out to Limbaugh that Trump bludgeoned his primary opponents mercilessly for not being in favor of deportation, yet now he's adopting their positions, and Limbaugh is shrugging his shoulders. "And for all of us who were saying that it was a con job, that it was a snow job — that he doesn't know what he's talking about, that he's unqualified to be president — for you to sit here and say that now that he adopts all the positions of everybody he ridiculed as not even being a flip-flop and it's no big deal?" Limbaugh replied, "I never took him seriously on this." And as for Trump's primary voters, "They're gonna stick with him no matter what."
About that, Rush is right. You probably remember when Trump said, "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, okay? It's like, incredible." It's still true, and they still somehow manage to believe that a candidate who tells a stupendous number of lies and shifts around on every issue is the one who "tells it like it is."
There's usually a transactional aspect to voting: Support me, and I'll deliver these things you want, whether it's a better economy, a different health care system, an exciting new war, and so on. But for Trump supporters, his candidacy has already delivered. It made them feel like they were in charge again, like they can say what they want and stick it to all the people they despise. And sure, a lot of what Trump says is ridiculous. But they're savvy enough to know not to take it too seriously. What matters is how it makes them feel.
That applies to all of Trump's promises, on immigration or anything else. What would they think if he were to become president and not create the immediate economic and societal transformation he's promising? What if in his policies he turned out to be just another Republican? Let's say Trump did that, which if you look at what he has said about policy is exactly what he'd do: cut taxes on the wealthy, cut regulations for corporations, subvert the safety net, drop some bombs overseas, and so on — the same list of priorities we've heard from the GOP for decades. At the end of it you'd have pretty much the same results you would have had with Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush. If America hasn't been turned into that paradise of winning where everybody's rich, we've gotten rid of the immigrants, and things look like they did in the 1950s, then what?
Would Trump supporters feel duped, or would they feel that Trump's election was what mattered? What if it's less about results than about that gigantic middle finger they gave to the "establishment," to the liberals, to political correctness, to everyone who thinks a multicultural society is a good thing? Will the very fact of Donald freaking Trump being elected president be enough?
If he can change on immigration, the one issue that more than any other has defined his campaign, then it probably will be. There are some Republicans, like Limbaugh's caller, who are outraged by Trump's flip-flops. But most find a way to justify them, especially those whose admiration for Trump runs the deepest. Was it an act? Sure, and plenty of them knew it. But they still loved every minute of it.
