Why I don't believe polls showing Trump behind in midwestern states

Hold off on the victory parade, Democrats

President Trump.
(Image credit: Illustrated | RosLilly/iStock, Scott Olson/Getty Images)

New Hampshire? Enjoy all four of its electoral votes. Whatever President Trump's campaign suggests to the contrary, the result of the 2020 presidential election will probably come down to the same handful of states that decided it in 2016: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

A new poll conducted by the right-leaning Detroit News and a local NBC affiliate shows both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders beating Trump in Michigan by 12 percent. Many of his critics are celebrating the result; others are already declaring the race there effectively over and indulging in speculation about other paths to victories for the bad orange man. I'm not sure this is warranted.

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Matthew Walther

Matthew Walther is a national correspondent at The Week. His work has also appeared in First Things, The Spectator of London, The Catholic Herald, National Review, and other publications. He is currently writing a biography of the Rev. Montague Summers. He is also a Robert Novak Journalism Fellow.