5 questions about how coronavirus will affect the 2020 election
What the coronavirus pandemic means for the suddenly secondary presidential contest
![Voting.](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/hUAVFqFNa9HR7xFeu9HUE8-415-80.jpg)
Say what you want about the pandemic, but one upside of it has been an almost universal lack of interest in all things 2020. The NFL draft still matters to people. So does a show about a psychotic zookeeper. But the 2020 presidential election is a nightmare from which we have actually managed to awaken, at least temporarily.
It won't last forever, though. Sooner or later we are going to start talking in earnest about November again. Here are a few questions worth asking now about where the race is headed.
1. Will there actually be a Democratic presidential convention?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516-320-80.jpg)
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
This is a serious issue for the party. Without pledged delegates (who themselves must be elected in state primaries, many of which have been delayed or canceled) formally selecting Biden at an actual convention, there is simply no formal mechanism for making him or anyone else the nominee. Will Milwaukee be open again by August for (no doubt) masked convention-goers from all across the country? Will the convention be held remotely, in the world's largest and loudest Google Hangout, something that would probably require bylaw changes in 50 states, to say nothing of at the national level? Or will the DNC could just agree to change the rules and make Biden the nominee by fiat, citing emergency circumstances? This would probably mean lawsuits from Bernie Sanders supporters, but something tells me Democratic elites are not terribly concerned about drawing their ire.
2. Will Trump's base turn out?
Never mind the swing voters from 2016 Trump needs to carry again in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. What about reliable GOP voters in those states and, especially, in the South? While I will be the first to point out that Trump is likelier than any candidate in my lifetime to benefit from the shy Tory effect, at present things are looking very grim for him indeed, polling-wise. Not a single one of the economic arguments he had planned on making will be applicable in November. Instead, he will take credit for relief measures, like the recent cash bill that gave taxpayers (subject to income limits) $1200. Most experts would agree that incumbent presidents governing with good economic numbers are unlikely to lose re-election. Trump's best hope now is that both the GOP base and a small but crucial number of Democrats and independents in the Midwest vote the way Americans did after the attacks of September 11, 2001, namely, for the guy already in charge.
3. How is Trump going to frame the lockdowns?
In some ways this is the most important question of all because it will also affect how Biden ends up campaigning. One disadvantage Trump would seem to face in a health vs. wealth election is that the GOP skews older. The most reliable Republican voters are far more likely than the average American to be at risk for the coronavirus. Public polling suggests that they are broadly in favor of lockdowns and happy to abide by them. The question is whether they and the rest of the American people will feel the same way months from now, in the middle of an economic depression? Voters are not rational. It is entirely possible that the same people who now say they support various state-imposed social distancing measures will be insisting months from now that the lockdowns were folly from which Emperor Donald I would have delivered them had it not been for the perfidy of liberals and the deep state. Will Trump position himself as the heroic savior of the nation who carried us through the plague, or will he insist that only the advice of public health officials prevented him liberating the nation back in March? I think he will try to suggest that both things are true simultaneously and that many voters will accept it.
4. What about impeachment?
Of all the names to have appeared recently in headlines, Michael Flynn's was easily the most surprising. It was like a beloved minor character from the first season of a long-running television program making a cameo four years later. At the beginning of February, I and many other observers would have suggested that Trump planned on making impeachment — which was not wildly popular in purple states even among those who did not consider themselves supporters of the president — one of the central issues in this campaign. Will he still attempt to argue that three years of relentless scandal mongering and showboating investigations hampered his ability to prepare for the pandemic? This seems to me a pretty safe bet.
5. Will Biden actually remain in the race?
If there were ever any doubts about whether the Democratic establishment would take Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault seriously, they have now been dispelled. From Nancy Pelosi on down, not a single prominent member of the party has come out in support of Reade, much less suggested that the allegations should keep Biden off the ticket. This does not mean there are no other issues here. Even with the pandemic keeping him mostly out of the public eye, his public pronouncements continue to be embarrassing even under the most favorable and controlled circumstances. This is to say nothing of the enthusiasm that dropping him in favor of a younger governor like Andrew Cuomo of New York or Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would be met with in certain circles. If I were Biden, I would try to get that "I'm the Democratic presidential nominee for 2020" thing in writing.
Want more essential commentary and analysis like this delivered straight to your inbox? Sign up for The Week's "Today's best articles" newsletter here.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Matthew Walther is a national correspondent at The Week. His work has also appeared in First Things, The Spectator of London, The Catholic Herald, National Review, and other publications. He is currently writing a biography of the Rev. Montague Summers. He is also a Robert Novak Journalism Fellow.
-
'Democrats now have a chance to present a vigorous, compelling case'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
What has Kamala Harris done as vice president?
In Depth It's not uncommon for the second-in-command to struggle to prove themselves in a role largely defined by behind-the-scenes work
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
How Black organizations quickly pivoted and mobilized for Kamala Harris
In the spotlight Harris has a shot at being the first Black woman to lead the Democratic ticket
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Venezuela election: first vote in a decade offers hope to poverty-stricken nation
The Explainer Nicolás Maduro agreed to 'free and fair' vote but poor polling and threat of prosecution pushes disputed leader to desperate methods
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'The studio has run out of marquee heroes'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
No political victory lasts
Opinion Why the party that loses in November will rise again
By William Falk Published
-
Is Jamaal Bowman's primary defeat the beginning of the end for DC's Squad?
Today's Big Question The congressman ran the most expensive House primary in US history but it wasn't enough
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
'This would be good for the Democrats, and give them a better chance of winning'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
'Forged in the fire of the food world's worst excesses'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published