The Conservatives cannot win a majority in a general election unless Boris Johnson delivers Brexit on 31 October, according to polling discussed at a private event at last week’s party conference.
The survey, published today by The Daily Telegraph, was first presented at a drinks reception attended by Conservative MPs and reveals voter reaction to a number of Brexit scenarios.
ComRes surveyed 2,050 British adults and asked how they would vote if the UK left the EU with a deal following an extension beyond the Halloween deadline. The results signal that the Conservative Party would be 14 short of a majority.
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Leaving without a deal after that date would leave the Tories even further from a majority – a full 18 seats shy of the magic number.
However, leaving with a deal at the end of October would give the Tories a projected majority of 118 in an election, while no deal on the same date would lead to a majority of 114.
Turning the prime minister’s leadership campaign slogan against him, ComRes chair Andrew Hawkins told the Telegraph that the results show that “Brexit really is do or die for Boris”.
Steve Baker, the Conservative chair of the Brexiteer European Research Group, added: “This polling shows what every MP must know. The UK is yearning to move on. It’s time to get Brexit done, on time, do or die.”
A party source said the results indicate that “even if we leave, even this year with a tiny extension, that makes a difference”.
Johnson has repeatedly called for Britain to go to the polls ahead of the Brexit deadline. The Tory leader tried for a snap poll on 15 October but failed to win the support of two-thirds of MPs as required under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
None of the scenarios put forward in the ComRes survey resulted in a Labour majority.
Indeed, recent voting intention surveys by a number of polling firms show Jeremy Corbyn’s party lagging behind the Conservatives by some way.
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