Boris Johnson: What will happen to the Brexiter post-referendum?

Boris Johnson says he will issue a public apology if a vote to leave the EU tomorrow triggers an economic downturn in Britain.

The former London mayor, a leading Leave campaigner, was speaking on LBC radio when a listener asked: "If we Brexit and we go into recession, would you have the political courage to go on TV and say 'Sorry, I made it wrong and I apologise'?"

"Of course I will," Johnson answered. "I'm not certain what my political career holds anyway. This is far more important than any individual political career."

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While the MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip may claim not to know what is in store for him, many political commentators believe his career prospects look good – regardless of the outcome of tomorrow's vote.

What will happen if Boris wins?

David Cameron has insisted he will stay on as prime minister if Britain votes for Brexit. However, it has been argued that his position would be untenable and a vote of no confidence could be called.

Johnson has long been the favourite to succeed the PM and would be the obvious front-runner in a leadership contest, having led the winning referendum campaign.

"It is looking increasingly possible that he will be in Downing Street before the end of the year," Jane Merrick writes in the Daily Telegraph.

But is this what he really wants, she asks: "This question is not as ridiculous as it sounds. Of course Johnson wants to be prime minister. One day. But does he really want it in these circumstances?"

Publically, at least, Johnson has always maintained he does not want Cameron to stand down and has rejected accusations that his decision to back the Leave campaign was politically motivated.

But critics, including The Guardian journalist Nick Cohen, say it was a "smart move" deliberately designed to "persuade previously unimpressed right-wing MPs" to nominate him as leader.

And if he loses?

He still might win. A post-referendum reshuffle is all but guaranteed in a bid to heal the deep fractures exposed in the Conservatives by the referendum and Johnson could land a nice new job.

"Surely, for Johnson, the best outcome of Thursday's vote is a narrow win for Remain," says Merrick. "Not a thumping victory for the PM - which is unlikely to happen anyway - but a slim margin."

One senior Tory MP told the Guardian Cameron "will want to be magnanimous" to the losing side if Britain votes to Remain and Johnson will be given a major portfolio as a result.

Chancellor George Osborne, as a Remain campaigner, will likely become the new favourite to replace the Prime Minister.

"But with the Tory membership overwhelmingly in favour of leaving the EU, it is unlikely to mark the end of the former London mayor’s ambitions," the paper adds.