Ukraine's counteroffensive: has it failed?

"It's not easy to say this", said Nicholas Drummond in The Spectator, but Ukraine's counteroffensive, launched five months ago with the aim of retaking swathes of lost territory, "has fizzled out". 

With "autumnal weather" turning "the rolling steppe into a sea of mud", the conflict has re-entered a phase of "static, attritional warfare", and any fresh attempt to break through Russian lines will now have to wait until at least April. 

There are clear reasons for this "failure". One is that Russia's defensive line has proved surprisingly impenetrable, with "minefields that run nearly a mile deep in some places"; and Kyiv has neither the specialist kit needed to clear a path nor enough armoured vehicles to "attack with mass". 

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Another is that President Putin is committed to conquering Ukraine at any cost, because his own survival depends on it. He doesn't care how many people die in this war. All that matters to him is that Kyiv runs out of "cannon fodder" first.

Stalemate

Ukraine's own commander in chief, General Zaluzhnyi, has warned that the war is heading into a stalemate, said The Observer – and that this will give the upper hand to Russia, with its greatether resources and manpower. Meanwhile, Putin has been intensifying his aerial strikes, targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure to heap further pressure on Ukrainian civilians this winter. 

President Zelenskyy has rejected the stalemate suggestion: he wants his allies to be realistic about what Kyiv can achieve, but he cannot afford for either them, or his people, to feel that the situation is hopeless. 

Fortunately, the White House is determined to "keep faith", not least because of fears that a Russian victory in Ukraine would imperil other countries. Earlier this month, Putin's ally Dmitry Medvedev warned Poland that it was seen in Moscow as a "dangerous enemy". But US Republicans have sought to block aid to Ukraine, citing its lack of battlefield progress.

'Perilous moment'

Without more weapons, Kyiv faces a "perilous moment" in the spring, when Russia will have re-armed and called up more troops, said The Daily Telegraph. 

So it is frustrating for Zelenskyy that the West's focus has shifted to the Middle East. He has long been fearful that his allies will lose interest in Kyiv's plight – which is, of course, what Putin has been hoping for. 

It is another reason why the West must do what it can to stop the Israel-Hamas war escalating. If Nato states are drawn into a wider conflict in the Middle East, Ukraine will come under pressure to agree a negotiated settlement – and Putin, and other autocrats, will be "the beneficiaries".