Democrats could be on the 'precipice' of a minority-party era


Democrats narrowly control the White House, the Senate, and the House, but President Biden's agenda might still be "in peril," so long as one caucus member has the ability to derail negotiations or initiatives, writes Ezra Klein for The New York Times.
And even worse, Democrats are "on the precipice of an era without any hope of a governing majority" for potentially the next decade, meaning the coming year could be their "last, best chance to alter course," according to pollster and election modeler David Shor. If they otherwise fail, "they will not get another chance. Not anytime soon," Klein writes.
More specifically, Democrats are "screwed" in the Senate, per Shor's projections. But why? Well, should Democrats pull off what would be a "startling performance" and beat Republicans by four points in the midterms, they would still only have a 50 percent chance of holding on to their majority. Worse, if they win just 51 percent of the vote, "they'll likely lose a seat — and the Senate," Klein writes per Shor.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
But it's 2024 when things could really get bad — if Democrats win a run-of-the-mill 51 percent of the vote, "Shor's model projects a seven-seat loss, compared with where they are now." In other words, "Senate Democrats could win 51 percent of the two-party vote in the next two elections and end up with only 43 seats in the Senate."
To combat the problem, Democrats need a way forward, and fast. And although there are plenty of forces at play — popularism, polarization, and the fact that "almost all politics is now national" — Klein requests the party start by recognizing itself to be a singular entity, incapable of influencing or winning voters until it understands who it truly is.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Brigid Kennedy worked at The Week from 2021 to 2023 as a staff writer, junior editor and then story editor, with an interest in U.S. politics, the economy and the music industry.
-
ICE agents take down Lady Justice | June 21 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Saturday’s political cartoons include ICE, Donald Trump as a lion tamer, and ordering from the Bible
-
5 editorial cartoons about ICE raids
Cartoons Political cartoonists take on ICE raids, harvesting Big Macs for Donald Trump, and what to do when Stephen Miller shows up at the front door
-
Grilled radicchio with caper and anchovy sauce recipe
The Week Recommends Smoky twist on classic Italian flavours is perfect to grill, drizzle and devour
-
Why are lobbyists trying to kill Trump's 'revenge tax'?
Today's Big Question Analysts say it would deter foreign investment
-
DNC rocked by high-profile departures as future is in question
IN THE SPOTLIGHT Generational shifts, ambiguous priorities, and the intensifying dangers of the Trump administration have pushed the organization into uncertain territory
-
Trump tells ICE to hit blue cities, spare farms, hotels
Speed Read Trump has targeted New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles among other cities
-
Trump's LA deployment in limbo after court rulings
Speed Read Judge Breyer ruled that Trump's National Guard deployment to Los Angeles was an 'illegal' overreach. But a federal appellate court halted the ruling.
-
'It was also a gift to music-lovers'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Marines, National Guard in LA can detain Americans
speed read The troops have been authorized to detain anyone who interferes with immigration raids
-
Trump vows 'very big force' against parade protesters
Speed Read The parade, which will shut down much of the capital, will celebrate the US Army's 250th anniversary and Trump's 79th birthday
-
Smithsonian asserts its autonomy from Trump
speed read The DC institution defied Trump's firing of National Portrait Gallery Director Kim Sajet