Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has a fight on his hands. Cruz is "fighting for his political survival," said The New York Times. His reelection race against challenger Colin Allred, a Democratic congressman and former football star, is "increasingly competitive." Polls show Cruz clinging to a single-digit lead, which could also threaten Republicans' chance to reclaim the Senate majority.
For a Democrat to "win statewide Texas, it's a big lift," said a Democratic PAC leader to The Hill. But Donald Trump won the state by just under 6 points in 2020. Democrats in Texas have been "closer and closer," said one strategist, and "pretty soon, closer is going to be close enough."
What did the commentators say? Cruz's reelection is in the "'safe bet' category," Jim Geraghty said at the National Review. We have seen these kinds of challenges before — when Jamie Harrison raised $130 million before losing to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), when Amy McGrath raised $88 million to fall to Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, or when Beto O'Rourke became a national sensation while losing to, yes, Ted Cruz in 2018. This looks like more of the same. "It doesn't really matter if your Democratic neighbor" thinks "Allred can beat Cruz," said Geraghty.
Donald Trump could "inadvertently help" Democrats win Cruz's seat, Chris Tomlinson said at the Houston Chronicle. National polling has suggested that Kamala Harris is benefitting from a surge of Democratic voter enthusiasm that could boost down-ballot candidates, even in Texas. "If Trump bombs and Harris soars," Tomlinson said, "Allred could win."
What next? Allred's campaign is getting a big boost. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced last week that it's "sending millions to Texas" to support his challenge to Cruz, said The Texas Tribune. Democrats have worried about losing control of the Senate in this election cycle. Now they see an opportunity to flip expectations. Democrats are "expanding the map and going on offense," said DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters.
Cruz has long been known as a conservative firebrand. Now, he's trying to "rebrand" himself as a bipartisan senator, said Politico. He has been touting his efforts to protect in vitro fertilization, as well as his participation in cross-party bills for hurricane relief. There's good reason for him to stake his claim to a broader ideological identity, said Politico. "Even if he hasn't changed, Texas has." |