Is Texas about to put a Democrat in the Senate?
Colin Allred is gaining on Ted Cruz


Ted Cruz is one of the most high-profile Republicans in the U.S. Senate. He is also one of the most vulnerable — and he has a fight on his hands in Texas.
Cruz is "fighting for his political survival," said The New York Times. His reelection race against challenger Colin Allred, a Democratic congressman and former football star, is "increasingly competitive." Polls show Cruz clinging to a slim, single-digit lead. That has some GOP officials "concerned" that Cruz could lose the seat, said the Times. If so, Republicans could also lose the opportunity to reclaim the majority in the Senate. "The current reality is that Texas is too close for comfort," said Matt Mackowiak, who leads the Travis County Republican Party.
Democrats have "long faced hurdles in the Lone Star State," said The Hill. "For a Democrat to win statewide Texas, it's a big lift. It's a heavy lift," said a Democratic PAC leader. But Donald Trump won the state by just under 6 points in 2020. Democrats in Texas have been "closer and closer," said one strategist, and "pretty soon closer is going to be close enough."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What did the commentators say?
Cruz's reelection bid is in the "'safe bet' category," Jim Geraghty said at the National Review. We've seen these kinds of challenges before — when Jamie Harrison raised $130 million on the way to losing to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), when Amy McGrath raised $88 million to fall to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, or even when Beto O'Rourke became a national sensation while losing to, yes, Ted Cruz in 2018. This looks like more of the same. "It doesn't really matter if your Democratic neighbor down the street thinks that Allred can beat Cruz," said Geraghty.
"Could Donald Trump inadvertently help Democrats win Ted Cruz's seat?" Chris Tomlinson said at The Houston Chronicle. At least one poll shows Allred closer to beating Cruz than O'Rourke was in 2018. And national polling has suggested that Kamala Harris is benefitting from a surge of Democratic voter enthusiasm that could boost down-ballot candidates, even in Texas. "If Trump bombs and Harris soars," Tomlinson said, "Allred could win."
What next?
Allred's campaign is getting a big boost: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced last week it is "sending millions to Texas" to support his challenge to Cruz, said The Texas Tribune. Democrats have worried about losing control of the U.S. Senate in this election cycle — they have several "difficult" seats to defend, including that of Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). Now they see an opportunity to flip expectations. "Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense," said DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters.
Cruz has long been known as a conservative firebrand — now he's trying to "rebrand" himself as a bipartisan senator, said Politico. "What is new is not that I'm passing bipartisan legislation that helps produce jobs in Texas," Cruz said. He has been touting his efforts to protect in-vitro fertilization, as well as his participation in cross-party bills for hurricane relief and trade across the Rio Grande. There is a good reason for him to stake his claim to a broader ideological identity, Politico said: "Even if he hasn't changed, Texas has."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Sweden's Soft Hooligans: the fans who brought 'good vibes' to the Euros
Under the Radar Formed to create a fun fan atmosphere, the Swedish football supporter group has been bringing the party to the championship
-
Crossword: July 18, 2025
The Week's daily crossword
-
Sudoku hard: July 18, 2025
The Week's daily hard sudoku puzzle
-
Can Texas redistricting save the US House for the GOP?
Today's Big Question Trump pushes a 'ruthless' new plan, but it could backfire
-
'We should all ask ourselves: When we laugh, who's hurting?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Could Trump really 'take over' American cities?
Today's Big Question Trump has proposed a federal takeover of New York City and Washington, D.C.
-
How will Trump's megabill affect you?
Today's Big Question Republicans have passed the 'big, beautiful bill' through Congress
-
How successful would Elon Musk's third party be?
Today's Big Question Musk has vowed to start a third party after falling out with Trump
-
Are masked ICE agents America's new secret police?
Today's Big Question Critics say masks undermine trust in law enforcement
-
Will NATO countries meet their new spending goal?
today's big question The cost of keeping Trump happy
-
Is Trump sidelining Congress' war powers?
Today's Big Question The Iran attack renews a long-running debate