The Week Evening Review
Stagflation's threat, DOGE's website flop, and Germany's elections

 
TALKING POINTS

Why the threat of stagflation is rising

It's a word not often heard in America since the 1970s: stagflation. The term describes a triple-whammy of terrible economic conditions — high unemployment, low growth and supercharged inflation. Now, some economists are warning that a new era of stagflation could be on the horizon.

President Donald Trump's economic policies risk the "worst of all possible worlds: a kind of stagflation," Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said to The Guardian. Trump's "on-off tariff plans" and "apparent contempt for the rule of law" will make businesses less likely to invest. The sudden cancellation of U.S. government programs will create further uncertainty and will likely produce "inflation and a weak economy." 

'High inflation and very slow growth'
The last era of American stagflation occurred when "oil prices spiked during the Arab oil embargo" during the 1970s, said CNN. The era left an imprint on many of today's economic policymakers. There was "10% unemployment," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a speech in May. It was "high-single-digits inflation and very slow growth." The Fed ultimately defeated stagflation with bitter medicine: It "aggressively" raised interest rates and triggered a painful recession during the early 1980s.

New reports showing inflation rising back to 3% make the current moment feel like a "light version of the 1970s," said Edward Harrison at Bloomberg. It's now clear that inflation is sticky — "price moderation" bottomed out in September — and the Trump administration's "seriously inflationary policies" will only add to the upward price pressure. 

There's "anxiety among economists" about a new era of "stagflation-light," said MarketWatch. The Trump administration's tariff announcements "make it harder for business to invest," while the promise of mass deportations could "dry up" the labor pool, forcing businesses to raise wages. The "remaining wild card" is spending. "Sharp cuts" to the federal budget would produce "another drag on the economy." 

Tariffs could be crucial
Trump's tariff maneuvering could decide what happens next. If tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada go into effect, analysts at Wells Fargo expect that U.S. GDP growth "would slow" even as inflation expectations would tick up, said Sourcing Journal. That could change if there are carve-outs for certain product categories or if the tariffs are only temporary. But persistent, widespread tariffs could lead to an ugly formula: "Negative growth along with an inflation boost equals stagflation."

 
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY

'There is no way to overstate how serious a breach this is.'

Nancy Altman, the president of Social Security Works (a group that promotes the expansion of Social Security), warning about the risks of Elon Musk's team gaining access to sensitive personal data held by the Social Security Administration. The agency's acting commissioner, Michelle King, refused to provide such access and resigned this weekend.

 
 
In the SPotlight

Musk's DOGE website is off to a bad start

Elon Musk set up a website for his Department of Government Efficiency to track cuts to the federal budget, but it had a lot of trouble getting off the ground. The DOGE site went live last Wednesday as part of a commitment by Musk to be "as transparent as possible" but was immediately prone to pitfalls. It was later partially fixed but not before online users could take advantage of it at DOGE's expense. 

What happened with the launch?
The website was set up as a "portal tracking the size of the federal workforce and documenting the number of federal regulations," said The Washington Post. It currently includes a stream of X posts showing a "running log of the actions" that DOGE is taking to slash government funding, including one "applauding the Department of Education, for example, for canceling grants in line with Musk's effort to cut $1 trillion in federal spending." 

Before this, though, the website got off to a haphazard start. At the outset, the website was simply a "default WordPress sample page that includes language about an imaginary architecture firm," said tech publication 404Media.

The website was found to be "insecure" and pulling from a "database that can be edited by anyone," said 404Media. This was largely because the site was not hosted on a government server but on an open platform. This led to several posts on the site that read "this is a joke of a .gov site" and "these 'experts' left their database open." The website "feels like it was completely slapped together," with "tons of errors and details leaked in the page source code," an anonymous coder said to 404Media.

What's going on now?
It "appears that the DOGE team has since fixed the issue with their website, as the messages are now gone," said Newsweek. The site is "still very much a work in progress," said Fortune. 

Musk has "yet to comment on the hacks as he continues promising 'transparency,'" said The New Republic. The website has also "posted classified information" about the country's satellite intelligence-building agency, the National Reconnaissance Office, according to HuffPost, which could create further controversy.

 
 

Statistic of the day

6,421: The number of breakfast and brunch restaurants that opened in the U.S. in 2024, according to review website Yelp. This represents a 23% increase from 2019, marking a continuing upward trend for the breakfast industry. However, these restaurants continue to battle increasingly higher prices for breakfast staples like eggs.

 
 
the explainer

How Germany's elections work

Elections in Germany are "usually dull affairs," but as Germans head for the polls this weekend, "this time it's different," said Adam Boulton at Sky News. The country's proportional voting system, and the decades-old agreement between the mainstream parties to work together to exclude the far-right, "usually means that there's not much change in Germany's political settlement." But the "emergence of a challenger party on the far right commanding significant levels" of voter support risks throwing the mainstream "into turmoil." 

What's the electoral system process? 
About 61 million people age 18 and over are eligible to vote in Germany's federal (general) elections. In a system known as "personalized proportional representation," each person gets two votes: one for a candidate to represent their constituency and the second for a party's state list. The second vote determines the strength of each party in the Bundestag (the equivalent of the U.S. House of Representatives). 

Under election law, a party must obtain a minimum of 5% of second (party) votes before it can claim representation in parliament. First introduced in 1953, this law was "intended to prevent tiny splinter parties" from getting into parliament and "fragmenting it, making it hard to form a viable majority," said DW. 

What are the key issues? 
The most populous country in the EU has been contending with a "stagnating economy, a fraught immigration debate and profound angst over the fast-deteriorating transatlantic relationship under the new Trump administration," said the Financial Times. The most heated exchanges of a final four-way election TV debate held on Sunday (pictured above) were about Ukraine. 

Who's ahead in the polls? 
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is on track to become Germany's next chancellor, according to Reuters' most recent poll of polls. His party is slated to get just under 30% of the vote. The parties that make up the ruling "traffic-light" coalition have seen their support plummet, with the center-left Social Democratic Party at 15%, the Greens just behind at 13% and the Liberals at 3%. But the big story of these elections is the strong rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany, endorsed by Elon Musk, which is currently polling second at just over 21%.

 
 

Good day 📚

… for Margaret Atwood fans. The author of "The Handmaid's Tale" has announced she will publish the memoir fans have waited for, called "Book of Lives," in November. It will feature "memories from her unconventional childhood in northern Canada, as well as the story of her writing career, from her early feminist works to her bestselling award-winning fiction," said The Guardian.

 
 

Bad day ⛷️

… for beginner's luck. Tennis star Andy Murray told the "Sporting Misadventures" podcast that he had to be rescued from a Swiss mountainside by a snowmobile after getting stuck during a recent first-ever ski trip. But "by the end, I got quite into it," he said, and "we are going to go again in April."

 
 
Picture of the day

In tatters

An American flag waves in the wind as a fire breaks out at the SBS Technologies warehouse in Jenkintown, Pennsylvania. The blaze erupted last night after witnesses reported hearing an explosion coming from the aerospace facility. As of today, schools remain closed, and residents are urged to shelter in place as black smoke lingers over the site.
Matt Rourke / AP

 
 
Puzzles

Test your general knowledge with The Week's daily crossword, part of our puzzles section, which also includes sudoku and codewords

 
 
The Week recommends

When dashing to make an early morning flight or when a long train ride is imminent, being able to grab a leakproof travel mug or bottle and know it will keep your coffee hot and water cold is a relief. Among the seemingly endless options out there, the ones below hold beverages at their desired temperature for hours, making them top contenders for your packing list.

CamelBak MultiBev water bottle and travel cup
Get two vessels for the price of one. The "unique" MultiBev is a water bottle and travel cup that fit together, able to keep drinks cold for 24 hours and hot for 16 hours, said Outdoor Life. Give the cup to your pal to drink from and "enjoy the rest of your beverage from the bottle." ($25, Amazon)

Larq PureVis self-cleaning bottle
The self-cleaning and water-filtering Larq PureVis bottle blends "high-tech capabilities" with "traditional features like insulated walls and a leakproof lid," said Travel and Leisure. Press a button on the top, and it "emits a UV-C light that sanitizes the contents of the bottle every two hours," preventing it from developing a "musty smell." ($99, Amazon)

Stojo collapsible travel cup
This lightweight cup takes up no room at all when you are finished with your drink, collapsing down to just two inches. The "clever design" makes it "turn into a disc that fits into a jacket pocket," said Condé Nast Traveler, or a "travel backpack or sling bag when you go hiking." (Starting at $15, Amazon)

 
 

Poll watch

Over four in 10 Democrats (45%) want their party to become more moderate, while a similar percentage of Republicans (43%) want their party to stay the same, according to a Gallup survey. The poll of 1,001 adults also found that the share of Democrats identifying as liberal (55%) and Republicans identifying as conservative (77%) hit record highs. 

 
 
INSTANT OPINION

Today's best commentary

'Is Google eating Reddit?'
John Herrman at Intelligencer
Reddit's "massive growth in recent years has a clear primary cause: Google," says John Herrman. The "problem is that the web is dying, or at least filling with garbage and slop, in no small part because of its economic entanglement with Google." Reddit "was and is still functioning fine, but it's clearly being harvested by Google." Google is "both a major benefactor and a source of large and growing risk" to Reddit's "continued health and operation."

'To avoid another conflict in the Horn of Africa, now is the time to act'
Mulatu Teshome Wirtu at Al Jazeera
The Horn of Africa is a "turbulent region," and Eritrea has "long been an eager participant in this theater of discord," says Mulatu Teshome Wirtu. Since "independence, the country has lacked all the traditional tools of governance that most nations take for granted." The "consequences of renewed conflict in the Horn wouldn't stop at Africa's borders." Diplomatic pressure is "needed to deter those who want to see an end to peace," and the "world must act."

'From Eisenhower to Trump: how military service impacts the presidency'
Steven Gillon at Time
Some Americans "may no longer view military service as a prerequisite for the presidency," but it's "important to understand how this attitude is a departure from the past when wartime experiences shaped the personality and character of those in the White House," says Steven Gillon. Veteran presidents "demonstrated enormous personal courage." Instead of "using their privilege to avoid service like some later presidents, they used it to get closer to the battlefield."

 
 
WORD OF THE DAY

surtitles

The words, lyrics or dialogue projected above a theater production during a performance. Songwriter Tim Rice, whose hits with composer Andrew Lloyd Webber include "Evita" and "Jesus Christ Superstar," is calling for surtitles to be routinely used for stage musicals, arguing that without them audiences are unable to fully appreciate the lyrics. "It's very frustrating at times," Rice said to The Guardian, "especially if you are the words man."

 
 

Evening Review was written and edited by Theara Coleman, Nadia Croes, Catherine Garcia, Scott Hocker, Justin Klawans, Joel Mathis, Summer Meza and Anahi Valenzuela, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly and Julia Wytrazek.

Image credits, from top: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images; DOGE.gov / Screenshot; Kay Nietfeld-Pool / Getty Images; Illustration by Julia Wytrazek / Getty Images