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  • The Week Evening Review
    Oil market volatility, AI sycophancy, and the Allbirds collapse 

     
    TODAY’S BIG QUESTION

    Has Trump’s unpredictability broken the oil market?

    Despite President Donald Trump proclaiming the Iran conflict will end in “two to three weeks,” oil prices spiked this week, and the markets were not soothed. “A word or social media post” from Trump “used to spark big moves in prices,” said the BBC. Investors would leap on “signs” that things could “escalate or come to an end.” But now traders seem to be “growing more skeptical about the value of his comments.” 

    What did the commentators say? 
    At the outset of the conflict, oil prices were “sensitive” to the president’s comments, but his view of the war “seems to change hour by hour,” said The Telegraph. His “stream of often contradictory statements” has made many wonder if they can “trust the messaging” coming from the U.S. administration, and some traders have drawn back from the market, “leaving prices increasingly untethered from reality.” 

    However many solutions to the current global oil crisis Trump comes up with, the oil market isn’t listening anymore, and the price of oil “keeps rising,” said Matthew Lynn at The Spectator. There’s simply no point in the president “trying to talk the price of oil back down again. It just won’t work.” 

    His “Persian TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) tactic may have “run its course,” said Eduardo Porter at The Guardian. “Making extreme threats” and then walking them back may “provide Trump with the illusion of agency,” but he “no longer has control” of events in Iran. The markets are “figuring out” that it will probably be Tehran, not the U.S., that decides when the conflict ends. 

    What next? 
    “It’s important to distinguish between price movements” and overall stability, said Zachary Karabell at The Washington Post. “After nearly three weeks of this conflict,” the global financial system is “functioning without panic or alarming signs of stress.” 

    The “smooth functioning” of the financial system, “in the face” of crises like the oil shock, “gets little attention, probably because stability is not news,” said Karabell. But financial institutions and governments have “improved at monitoring” risks, and that should “at least provide some relief in a world full enough of fears.”

     
     
    the explainer

    AI gives dangerous advice to validate users

    It’s no secret that artificial intelligence can sometimes offer less-than-stellar guidance. But AI might give people this bad wisdom for a sobering reason: to flatter, according to a new study. In some cases, AI may only reinforce people’s preconceived notions, but the words it generates can be outright harmful.

    What did the study find?
    The “sycophantic (flattering, people-pleasing, affirming) behavior” of AI chatbots can pose risks as people “increasingly seek advice about interpersonal dilemmas,” said the study published in the journal Science. In an analysis of 11 leading large language models, including AI bots from Anthropic, Google and OpenAI, chatbot responses to users were “nearly 50% more sycophantic than humans’, even when users engaged in unethical, illegal” behaviors.

    AI’s general tendency to “flatter and excessively confirm users’ opinions can lead to wrong decisions, harm relationships and reinforce harmful beliefs while decreasing the willingness to take responsibility or resolve conflicts,” said The Jerusalem Post. The proneness toward sycophancy is a “technological flaw already tied to some high-profile cases of delusional and suicidal behavior in vulnerable populations,” said The Associated Press.

    Why is this such a problem?
    Many experts worry that this AI advice will “worsen people’s social skills and ability to navigate uncomfortable situations,” said Myra Cheng, the study’s lead author and a computer science Ph.D. candidate, to the Stanford Report. If this behavior by AI is not corrected, some users could “lose the skills to deal with difficult social situations.”

    All of this is happening as AI use becomes more prevalent, especially among teenagers. At least 33% of teens “use AI companions for social interaction and relationships,” according to a study from Common Sense Media. Another 33% of teens choose to “discuss important or serious matters with AI companions instead of real people.” 

    When using AI, you should avoid asking for advice on crucially important topics, said Cheng to the Stanford Report. “That’s the best thing to do for now.” 

     
     
    QUOTE OF THE DAY

    ‘I end up at a Waffle House like 50 miles away from where I was. They said, “That’s not possible. You just left here like a moment ago.”’

    Gregg Phillips, the head of FEMA’s Office of Response and Recovery, on the conservative podcast “Onward,” telling “his boys” about being teleported. The more “accurate biblical terms are ‘translated’ or ‘transported’ — not new ideas for people of faith,” he said in an X post defending his claim.

     
     

    Statistic of the day

    12,000: The number of years humans have been gambling, according to a new study in the journal American Antiquity. Researchers have discovered that Indigenous North American groups used dice in the Ice Age. Two-sided gaming tokens, unearthed in the Great Plains, date back 12,000 years — 6,000 years older than the earliest dice found in Europe.

     
     
    in the spotlight

    Latest casualty of the direct-to-consumer model: Allbirds

    People who want to grab a once-trendy pair of shoes in person will have to go somewhere else. Allbirds has announced it has closed all of its stores and has struck a deal to sell its assets. The sell-off marks a massive fall from grace for the shoe company, which began as a direct-to-consumer fashion brand before opening brick-and-mortar locations. Allbirds is merely the latest DTC company to find itself drowning, and experts say its shuttering may point to larger problems with the business model.

    From $4B to $39M
    Allbirds once represented the pinnacle of tech-bro fashion and became known as the “eco-friendly shoe company that won over Silicon Valley,” said the Los Angeles Times. Following a slew of successes with the DTC model, Allbirds “peaked at a $4 billion valuation when it went public in 2021.”

    But its remaining assets were sold last month for $39 million, representing only “1% of its peak market capitalization,” said Fortune. The 99% plunge in value was due to “major strategic missteps in trying to sustain its once meteoric growth.”

    The Allbirds C-suite is seemingly confident that things will turn around. The company’s sale “builds on the foundational work already completed and sets up the brand to thrive in the years ahead,” said CEO Joe Vernachio in a statement. 

    Hitting a ceiling
    The collapse of Allbirds now has some people asking larger questions about the viability of DTC. As “rents rise, physical retail loses its shine and being digitally native becomes more important, Allbirds and other DTC companies have begun to shift their focus” to a more online strategy, said CNBC.

    Most brands “do need physical retail to grow their customer base,” said Kevin Mullaney, the CEO of retail consultancy The Grayson Company, to Marketplace. But many of these brands, including companies like mattress seller Casper and skin care brand Glossier, were caught “trying to do everything, everywhere, all at once. DTC is a “great concept, but it hit a ceiling,” said Jessica Ramirez, a co-founder of the advisory firm The Consumer Collective, to the outlet. Companies “can only go so far with concepts like that.”

     
     

    Good day 🙋‍♂️

    … for human content. Wikipedia’s volunteer editors have adopted a new policy that prohibits the use of AI large language models to create articles for the online encyclopedia. The new policy, approved in a 40-2 vote, allows editors to use LLMs to suggest basic copyedits to their own writing, as long as the AI doesn’t generate entirely new content.

     
     

    Bad day 🚗

    … for driverless cars. At least a hundred self-driving taxis stopped midtraffic and trapped passengers in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The shutdown of Chinese tech giant Baidu’s Apollo Go vehicles was “likely a system malfunction,” said local police in a statement.

     
     
    Picture of the day

    Out of this world

    A view of Earth taken from the Orion spacecraft by NASA astronaut and Artemis II Commander Reid Wiseman. The mission will take him, Victor Glover, Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen on a 10-day journey around the moon, breaking Apollo 13’s record for the farthest distance humanity has traveled from home.
    Reid Wiseman / NASA / Getty

     
     
    Puzzles

    Daily sudoku

    Challenge yourself with The Week’s daily sudoku, part of our puzzles section, which also includes guess the number

    Play here

     
     
    The Week recommends

    Mind-altering dramas star in these new movies

    Spring was once the prelude to the summer blockbuster season. But studios are increasingly pushing out their films with less predictable patterns, which might explain why a classic summer action thriller and a buzzy vehicle for two young megastars are both dropping in April.

    ‘The Drama’
    Could anything be more of the moment than an edgy A24 offering starring Zendaya (pictured above) and Robert Pattinson? The film’s jaw-dropping twist is already making waves. This “complex, incredibly stressful, provocative and uncomfortably funny” movie “unfolds like a dreadful, violent car wreck that keeps piling up,” said Matt Neglia, of Next Best Picture, at Letterboxd. (in theaters now)

    ‘Pizza Movie’
    This stoner comedy for the age of edibles and ennui follows the exploits of two college students after they take a mysterious mind-bending drug. An “uproariously unhinged” film, “Pizza Movie” is a “low-calorie guilty pleasure that offers just enough new ingredients to a meal you have had many times before,” said Zachary Lee at Roger Ebert. (on Hulu now)

    ‘Fuze’
    A throwback thriller from director David Mackenzie (“Hell or High Water”), this heist movie has a particularly clever premise. A 1,000-pound WWII-era bomb is unearthed in London in a scenario clearly drawn from real-life events, after which a massive evacuation and defusing effort commences. The lean flick “prizes style but has no higher ambition than to entertain, with an economy of means and no fussy pretension,” said Richard Lawson at The Hollywood Reporter. (in theaters April 24)

    Read more

     
     

    Poll watch

    Three-quarters of Americans see racial and ethnic diversity as a good thing for the country, according to a Pew Research Center study of 3,560 U.S. adults. Similarly, 62% think racial and ethnic diversity has a positive impact on U.S. culture. And a majority of Democrats (86%) and Republicans (66%) believe it’s good that the population is diverse.

     
     
    INSTANT OPINION

    Today’s best commentary

    ‘Why Lebanon should join the International Criminal Court’
    Mark Kersten at Al Jazeera
    What will “international law have to say about the violence and atrocities being waged against the Lebanese people”? says Mark Kersten. The answer will “depend in large part on whether Lebanon finally decides, as Palestine did, to join the International Criminal Court.” The ICC can “offer a modicum of accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Lebanon.” This would also “provide Lebanese citizens with an independent, impartial and international forum.”

    ‘Like journalists, prosecutors shaped a distorted view of crime. They can help fix it, too.’
    Kelly McBride at the Poynter Institute
    Journalists have “misled the public about crime and are now trying to correct the problem,” and “prosecuting attorneys have been guilty of many of the same sins,” says Kelly McBride. Both “talk about crime mostly when a crime has occurred.” These “journalists and prosecutors (and police, too) inadvertently reinforce the public perception that crime is a constant, growing threat, even though we know the opposite is true.” This “shapes how people understand their own safety and the policies they support.”

    ‘We should stop trying to copy unhappy America’
    Linda McQuaig at the Toronto Star
    Canada has “declined all the way down to the 25th spot when it comes to something that’s really important: happiness,” says Linda McQuaid. In “many ways, happiness is a more meaningful measure of our overall national success than the always-highlighted economic measure of GDP per capita.” Debate is “dominated by talk of how Canada measures up economically, whether we are as rich” as the U.S. The “focus is rarely on” whether Canada’s “social supports are strong enough.”

     
     
    WORD OF THE DAY

    burr

    A rotary cutting tool used in manufacturing. When making coffee, a burr grinder crushes beans to a consistent size, unlike a blade grinder. And grind size is a key factor for flavor, according to a study in the journal Royal Society Open Science. A “basic supermarket blend can taste delicious if the grind is right,” said The Times.

     
     

    Evening Review was written and edited by Theara Coleman, Nadia Croes, Scott Hocker, Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, Justin Klawans, Chas Newkey-Burden and Joel Mathis, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly.

    Image credits, from top: Stephen P. Kelly / Getty Images; Stock Photo / Getty Images; Victor J. Blue / Bloomberg / Getty Images; Pictorial Press / A24 / Alamy
     

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