2023 Emmy nominations predictions

(Image credit: Frazer Harrison / Getty Images)

published 5 July 2023

If you star in a drama series that's not "Succession," we love you, but you are not serious contenders at the 2023 Emmys. This year's awards show should see "Succession" and "Ted Lasso" once again dominate, especially since both have (seemingly) aired their final seasons. But there's still room for newcomers, including a few rising stars and at least one Hollywood legend who looks set to earn his first Emmy nod at age 80.

Here are our predictions for this year's Emmy nominations, which will be announced on July 12:

Repeat nominees should dominate this category, especially if you count "The White Lotus," which cleaned up as a limited series last year but has been reclassified as a drama. But the key question is whether "Yellowjackets" and/or "The Mandalorian" could be snubbed for the first time, as their most recent seasons weren't quite as beloved, and "Andor" has been so acclaimed that it could steal the "Star Wars" slot. In terms of newcomers, "Game of Thrones" was nominated every single season, so the spin-off, "House of the Dragon," probably won't be ignored. The remaining spot will likely go to one of this year's biggest shows, which is relatively fresh in voters' minds: "The Last of Us." Its powerful third episode surely sealed the deal.

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"Succession" should reign supreme even more than usual thanks to having a strong farewell season, so expect Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, and Jeremy Strong to all earn nominations again — though Culkin has been switched from supporting to lead. Bob Odenkirk will also surely be nominated for the sixth and final time, and Jeff Bridges can sneak in for "The Old Man," given he's a beloved Hollywood legend. Pedro Pascal also appears set for his first nod for "The Last of Us." But don't count out Paddy Considine for "House of the Dragon," especially if voters want to make things right after he was snubbed at the Golden Globes. Did they not see that throne room scene?

The strength of "Succession" makes this award Sarah Snook's to lose, and there's no reason to think Melanie Lynskey will be snubbed after getting in last year. Both of the previous actors to play Queen Elizabeth on "The Crown" have also won this Emmy, so Imelda Staunton's nomination is probably safe, and voters can recognize two rising stars by honoring Bella Ramsey ("The Last of Us") and Emma D'Arcy ("House of the Dragon"). The last slot is somewhat open, and Elisabeth Moss has been nominated for "The Handmaid's Tale" multiple times, so it would make sense to slot her in. But Moss has been snubbed before, and voters might be more inclined to honor a fresher show by giving a nod to Keri Russell from "The Diplomat." She was previously nominated three times for "The Americans."

You probably can't go wrong this year by simply predicting every "Succession" actor in their respective category — including Alan Ruck, who surprisingly hasn't been nominated yet but delivered some of his best work in the final season. Although Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks were strangely snubbed last year, the fact that this was the final season of "Better Call Saul" should help them squeeze back in, while Matt Smith could effectively earn the "Game of Thrones" supporting slot that Peter Dinklage used to snag every year. Both previous Prince Philip actors on "The Crown" have also been nominated in this category, so Jonathan Pryce can follow in their footsteps.

Expect Jennifer Coolidge, Christina Ricci, Rhea Seehorn, and J. Smith-Cameron to all be nominated again, while Elizabeth Debicki should get in for playing Princess Diana in "The Crown," as Emma Corrin did. Aubrey Plaza was one of the stand-outs of "The White Lotus" season 2, so she's firmly in the mix, and if Emma D'Arcy is getting nominated for "House of the Dragon," how could voters ignore the queen herself, Olivia Cooke? Carol Burnett doesn't have a huge role in "Better Call Saul," but voters still might not be able to pass up the opportunity to honor an icon once more.

"Abbott Elementary," "Barry," "Only Murders in the Building," "Ted Lasso," and "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" are all past nominees that it would be shocking to see missing. "The Bear," meanwhile, is the buzziest newcomer, and its second season premiering during the voting period can't hurt its chances. Emmy voters will also likely appreciate the throwback nature of Peacock's "Poker Face," and some "Ted Lasso" love may rub off on another Brett Goldstein Apple show, "Shrinking." Netflix's phenomenon "Wednesday" is also a possibility, but the fact that it's aimed at more of a young adult audience makes its nomination somewhat questionable, especially since voters will surely be recognizing its leading lady elsewhere.

With one exception, this entire category will likely consist of nominees from last year, as there's no reason to expect a snub for any of them. The only newcomer will be Jeremy Allen White for "The Bear," who is surely a lock after winning this equivalent prize at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. If there's a surprise, it's possible either Steve Martin or Martin Short could be bumped in favor of Jason Segel for "Shrinking."

Rachel Brosnahan, Quinta Brunson, and Elle Fanning should carry over their nominations from last year, leaving room for two newcomers. The safest bet would be Jenna Ortega, who carries "Wednesday" and is the kind of young star the Emmys will want to get behind, as she's clearly on her way toward dominating Hollywood. Given "Poker Face" is built entirely around Natasha Lyonne, she also has a good chance of getting in, especially after voters previously recognized her for "Russian Doll."

"Ted Lasso" had three nominees in this category last year, though Toheeb Jimoh will likely be swapped out for Phil Dunster given Dunster's character, Jamie Tartt, had a more emotional role in the third season. Nick Mohammed is also at risk of being dropped after Nate's role in season 3 was a bit divisive, which will leave room for newcomer Ebon Moss-Bachrach from "The Bear." But Tony Shalhoub, Tyler James Williams, and Henry Winkler will probably be repeat nominees, and Harrison Ford looks set to join them because, well, he's Harrison Ford. Ford never led a television series before his back-to-back roles in "1923" and "Shrinking," so voters will jump at the chance to welcome him to the club.

With "The White Lotus" no longer in this category, the race is anyone's game. But "Beef" is the most acclaimed limited series of 2023, while "Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story" was a huge hit that was previously recognized at the Golden Globes. "Black Bird" also earned a Golden Globe nod and even a win for Paul Walter Hauser, while "Daisy Jones & the Six" was a buzzy and relatively recent contender, and "George & Tammy" is a star-studded series based on a true story that voters could eat up the same way they nominated "Pam & Tommy" last year.

This category should honor some well-reviewed movies that premiered on streaming services, including Roku's hilarious Weird Al biopic spoof "Weird: The Al Yankovic Story" and Hulu's "Predator" prequel "Prey." "Dolly Parton's Mountain Magic Christmas," an NBC special, could also get in if only because Parton is one of the few living cultural figures that not a single person seems to dislike. If voters rather honor another streaming movie, though, it could be "Hocus Pocus 2," which was a big hit on Disney+.

Evan Peters, Taron Egerton, and Steve Carell have the most momentum in this category after already being nominated at the SAG Awards, while Steven Yeun should be right there alongside them thanks to the acclaim for "Beef." The other slots could go to a number of contenders, but if "George & Tammy" gets a limited series nod, an acting nomination for Michael Shannon will probably go alongside it. This category also includes TV movies, though, and who among us doesn't want to live in a world where Daniel Radcliffe is nominated for an Emmy for playing Weird Al?

Could Jessica Chastain win two high-profile awards for playing real people named Tammy? She's certainly the frontrunner for playing Tammy Wynette in "George & Tammy" after already winning an Oscar for playing Tammy Faye Messner. This category should also include some stand-out performances in shows that won't necessarily receive much love elsewhere, including for Dominique Fishback in "Swarm," an actress who, like Jenna Ortega, is clearly going places. Plus, can voters really ignore Rachel Weisz for playing not one, but two roles?

Paul Walter Hauser is coming off the momentum of winning this equivalent award at the Golden Globes, though he's got some tough competition. Look out for Domhnall Gleeson, who hasn't been nominated for an Emmy before but received tons of praise for his role as a serial killer on "The Patient." Also keep an eye out for Ray Liotta, who died in 2022, to receive a posthumous nod for one of his last roles. Fingers crossed he'll also get a posthumous Oscar nomination for "Cocaine Bear."

Almost everyone in this category is at risk of getting snubbed with the exception of Niecy Nash-Betts, who has already been nominated for a Golden Globe, Critics' Choice Award, and SAG Award for her role on "Monster." Olivia Colman, who won an Emmy for "The Crown," may also be safe, making her one of few actresses who could sleepwalk her way to a nomination for a show that nobody appears to have watched.

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Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.