2024 Golden Globe nominations predictions: Will Barbenheimer dominate?

Plus: Which films will be nominated in a new category honoring blockbusters?

Margot Robbie at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards
Margot Robbie, the star of 'Barbie,' attends the 2023 Golden Globe Awards
(Image credit: Matt Winkelmeyer / FilmMagic)

The Barbenheimer awards season is about to begin in earnest. Nominations for the 2024 Golden Globe Awards will be unveiled on Dec. 11, and both "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" look set to clean up. But what else will make it in, and who could surprise? Here are our predictions for the Globes' movie nominations, including in the awards' new blockbuster category:  

Best Motion Picture - Drama

  • "Anatomy of a Fall"
  • "Killers of the Flower Moon"
  • "Maestro"
  • "Nyad"
  • "Oppenheimer"
  • "Past Lives"

This award is a battle between "Oppenheimer" and "Killers of the Flower Moon," with "Past Lives" and "Maestro" next in line. That leaves two open slots, and "Anatomy of a Fall" should snag one, riding the momentum from its Palme d'Or win. Also look out for an underdog: "Nyad," a sports movie starring Annette Bening and Jodie Foster, who are practically Golden Globes royalty with 19 nominations between them. 

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

  • "American Fiction"
  • "Barbie"
  • "The Color Purple"
  • "The Holdovers"
  • "May December"
  • "Poor Things"

"Poor Things" and "The Holdovers" aren't far behind "Oppenheimer" in the Oscar race, so they're safe. As are "Barbie" and "The Color Purple." The former is the highest-grossing comedy of all time, while the latter is one of the only musical candidates. Additionally, "American Fiction" won the Toronto International Film Festival's prestigious People's Choice Award which makes a Globes nod likely, while "May December" seems like the kind of buzzy, star-studded melodrama that would shine at the Globes. 

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Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

  • "Barbie"
  • "Elemental" 
  • "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3"
  • "John Wick: Chapter 4"
  • "Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One"
  • "Oppenheimer"
  • "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
  • "The Super Mario Bros. Movie"

This award has been introduced for 2024 as a way to recognize blockbuster movies. To be eligible, a film must have grossed $150 million, including $100 million in the U.S., or performed well on streaming, so expect to see a collection of well-received hits. But this was arguably a suboptimal year to debut the award because it will surely go to "Barbie" or "Oppenheimer," which will already receive plenty of love in the existing categories. 

Best Motion Picture - Animated

  • "The Boy and the Heron"
  • "Elemental"
  • "Nimona"
  • "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
  • "The Super Mario Bros. Movie"
  • "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem"

This award will inevitably be handed to "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" after its predecessor won the prize. But the biggest burning question is whether "Wish" will be nominated, as Disney's animated films typically are, or if mixed reviews will hold it back in favor of a film like "Nimona" — which, ironically, was dropped by Disney before being saved by Netflix. 

Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language

  • "Anatomy of a Fall"
  • "Perfect Days"
  • "Society of the Snow"
  • "The Taste of Things"
  • "The Teachers' Lounge"
  • "The Zone of Interest"

The only slam-dunk nominee in this category is "Anatomy of a Fall," being that it's likely to compete for the main Best Picture award. But expect to see films from countries like Germany and Spain represented alongside it. "The Zone of Interest" is also arguably on the outskirts of the Best Picture race, so it should show up here.

Best Director

  • Bradley Cooper - "Maestro"
  • Greta Gerwig - "Barbie"
  • Yorgos Lanthimos - "Poor Things"
  • Christopher Nolan - "Oppenheimer"
  • Alexander Payne - "The Holdovers"
  • Martin Scorsese - "Killers of the Flower Moon"

The only real question in this category is whether it will include Bradley Cooper for "Maestro," as he's at risk of being bumped if voters feel nominating him as an actor is enough. If so, the Globes could go with a fresher face like Celine Song for her semi-autobiographical directorial debut, "Past Lives." Then again, Cooper was nominated both as an actor and a director for "A Star Is Born."

Best Screenplay

  • "Barbie"
  • "The Holdovers"
  • "Killers of the Flower Moon"
  • "Oppenheimer"
  • "Past Lives"
  • "Poor Things"

Screenplays aren't separated by genre at the Golden Globes. Nor is there a distinction between adapted or original like at the Oscars, making this a fierce contest between "Barbie," "Oppenheimer" and "Killers of the Flower Moon." Joining them in the category should be the wildly original "Poor Things," the wildly emotional "Past Lives" and the wildly cozy "The Holdovers."

Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

  • Bradley Cooper - "Maestro"
  • Leonardo DiCaprio - "Killers of the Flower Moon"
  • Colman Domingo - "Rustin"
  • Adam Driver - "Ferrari" 
  • Cillian Murphy - "Oppenheimer"
  • Andrew Scott - "All of Us Strangers"

Cooper, DiCaprio, Domingo and Murphy are locks, so who will join them? Three-time nominee Adam Driver has been visible enough that he could sneak in for a movie, "Ferrari," without much other awards prospects just as he was 2023's sole nominee for "White Noise." And while "All of Us Strangers" is a smaller contender, Andrew Scott, a previous nominee for "Fleabag," has earned raves. 

Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

  • Annette Bening - "Nyad"
  • Lily Gladstone - "Killers of the Flower Moon"
  • Sandra Huller - "Anatomy of a Fall"
  • Greta Lee - "Past Lives"
  • Carey Mulligan - "Maestro"
  • Cailee Spaeny - "Priscilla"

Alongside the frontrunners like Gladstone, Mulligan and Lee, Bening should get in for "Nyad" given the movie is built on her performance, and she has a strong track record at the Globes. Meanwhile, Cailee Spaeny is eying her first nod after receiving a boost by winning the Venice Film Festival's Volpi Cup for Best Actress.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

  • Nicolas Cage - "Dream Scenario"
  • Timothee Chalamet - "Wonka"
  • Matt Damon - "Air"
  • Jamie Foxx - "The Burial"
  • Paul Giamatti - "The Holdovers"
  • Jeffrey Wright - "American Fiction"

Several of this year's biggest musical or comedy contenders don't actually have lead male performances. That leaves room for some well-liked stars to make it in for movies that aren't in the Best Picture race, including past nominees Chalamet and Damon. Plus, could Cage's announcement that he will soon retire from movies give him awards momentum? 

Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

  • Halle Bailey - "The Little Mermaid"
  • Fantasia Barrino - "The Color Purple"
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus - "You Hurt My Feelings"
  • Natalie Portman - "May December"
  • Margot Robbie - "Barbie"
  • Emma Stone - "Poor Things"

Stone, Robbie, Barrino and to a lesser extent Portman have had Oscar buzz for months, so it would be shocking if they missed. The bigger question is again how the remaining spots will be allocated. Julia Louis-Dreyfus for "You Hurt My Feelings" would make sense knowing her previous collaboration with the director, "Enough Said," earned her a nod. The Globes may also want to recognize a rising star in Halle Bailey. Having a musical or comedy category gives voters a unique opportunity to honor her for "The Little Mermaid" given she will almost certainly not be nominated at the Oscars. 

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

  • Robert De Niro - "Killers of the Flower Moon"
  • Robert Downey Jr. - "Oppenheimer"
  • Ryan Gosling - "Barbie"
  • Charles Melton - "May December"
  • Mark Ruffalo - "Poor Things"
  • Dominic Sessa - "The Holdovers"

The Globes' supporting awards aren't separated by genre, making this a more crowded field where the only non-lock is Dominic Sessa for "The Holdovers." He's phenomenal in the film, but he's not an established name. This is the 21-year-old's first acting role, and that leaves him vulnerable to miss in favor of a bigger star like Willem Dafoe for "Poor Things."

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

  • Emily Blunt - "Oppenheimer"
  • Danielle Brooks - "The Color Purple"
  • Jodie Foster - "Nyad"
  • Taraji P. Henson - "The Color Purple"
  • Julianne Moore - "May December"
  • Da'Vine Joy Randolph - "The Holdovers"

Randolph is the frontrunner, but Blunt should also get in thanks to that show-stopping interrogation scene in "Oppenheimer." Perennial nominee Foster can also expect to earn her 11th nod. But it remains to be seen if voters loved "The Color Purple" enough to nominate two supporting actresses. If not, don't be stunned if America Ferrera is recognized for "Barbie" almost entirely due to her unforgettable monologue — perhaps the defining movie scene of 2023. 

Best Original Score

  • "The Boy and the Heron"
  • "Elemental"
  • "Killers of the Flower Moon"
  • "Oppenheimer"
  • "Past Lives"
  • "The Zone of Interest"

The score of "Oppenheimer" was practically a supporting character in the film, making three-time nominee Ludwig Göransson a frontrunner to win. But don't count out "Killers of the Flower Moon" and its score from the late Robbie Robertson, who died in August.

Best Original Song

  • "Can't Catch Me Now" - "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes"
  • "Dance the Night" - "Barbie"
  • "For the First Time" - "The Little Mermaid"
  • "I'm Just Ken" - "Barbie"
  • "This Wish" - "Wish"
  • "What Was I Made For?" - "Barbie"

Can Disney overcome the mixed reception of "Wish" to at least get an original song nod? "This Wish" does stands on its own as a solid "I want" song, so it's possible, and if not, "The Little Mermaid" has a good one written by Lin-Manuel Miranda. But the story of this category will be "Barbie," which will likely have multiple tracks in contention like it does at the Grammys. When the nominations are read, fans of Greta Gerwig's film should be ready to shout, "Sublime!"

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