Was the January jobs report really that good?
It appears the U.S. economy didn't dodge the Omicron bullet after all.
The Labor Department's jobs report, which was released Friday, showed that the U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January and that the unemployment rate increased only slightly to 4.0 percent.
Several outlets hailed these numbers as a pleasant and unexpected surprise after many experts predicted a downturn due to Omicron. Politico called the report "phenomenal." The Democratic Party hailed it as evidence of "the Biden Boom." Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao wrote that the report "signals that the job market recovery is plowing forward, despite Omicron headwinds."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
But was it? According to Matt Yglesias' Slow Boring newsletter, not really.
"One natural interpretation of these numbers is that the fears of an Omicron impact on the economy were wrong. But this is incorrect," Yglesias wrote.
"January happens to be the month when the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] does an annual update of some of its models," he continued. "With updated [census] data, they're able to generate new and better estimates. The January jobs gains came entirely from these changes."
Without the adjustment for new census data, the economy actually lost jobs between December 2021 and January 2022. Thanks to the adjustment, gains that actually took place in previous months showed up in January's report.
"That doesn't mean the jobs aren't real," Yglesias wrote. "But they are jobs we had all along. Using consistent household survey data, employment fell in January … for precisely the reason the Biden administration was worried it would fall: lots of people missed work because they were sick" with Omicron.
Axios reported Tuesday that over "1 million men surged into the job market last month … compared to just 39,000 women," a conclusion Yglesias also disputed.
"[I]t's not that a ton of men newly entered the labor force, a bunch of working age men who'd been around all along got counted correctly," he tweeted.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Grayson Quay was the weekend editor at TheWeek.com. His writing has also been published in National Review, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Modern Age, The American Conservative, The Spectator World, and other outlets. Grayson earned his M.A. from Georgetown University in 2019.
-
Cautious optimism surrounds plans for the world's first nuclear fusion power plant
Talking Point Some in the industry feel that the plant will face many challenges
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
2024: the year of Black country artists
In the Spotlight Beyoncé debuted 'Cowboy Carter' at the top of the country charts, shining a spotlight on artists like Shaboozey
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Explore new worlds this winter at these 6 enlightening museum exhibitions
The Week Recommends Discover the estrados of Spain and the connection between art and chess in various African countries
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
Marty Makary: the medical contrarian who will lead the FDA
In the Spotlight What Johns Hopkins surgeon and commentator Marty Makary will bring to the FDA
By David Faris Published
-
California declares bird flu emergency
Speed Read The emergency came hours after the nation's first person with severe bird flu infection was hospitalized
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Bird flu one mutuation from human threat, study finds
Speed Read A Scripps Research Institute study found one genetic tweak of the virus could enable its spread among people
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Dark chocolate tied to lower diabetes risk
Speed Read The findings were based on the diets of about 192,000 US adults over 34 years
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
ACA opens 2025 enrollment, enters 2024 race
Speed Read Mike Johnson promises big changes to the Affordable Care Act if Trump wins the election
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
McDonald's sued over E. coli linked to burger
Speed Read The outbreak has sickened at least 49 people in 10 states and left one dead
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Long Covid: study shows damage to brain's 'control centre'
The Explainer Research could help scientists understand long-term effects of Covid-19 as well as conditions such as MS and dementia
By The Week UK Published
-
FDA OKs new Covid vaccine, available soon
Speed read The CDC recommends the new booster to combat the widely-circulating KP.2 strain
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published