GOP leader Kevin McCarthy's bid for House speaker may really be in peril


House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) "seems to have a math problem in his quest to become House speaker," Eric Ting writes at SFGate. If Republicans win the last two uncalled House races, McCarthy's Republicans will have a 222-213 majority in the House. "That means McCarthy can suffer only four Republican defections in the speaker vote scheduled for Jan. 3," and five House Republicans have said they are hard no's, Ting adds. "If all five remain steadfast in voting against McCarthy, he's toast."
McCarthy can count, too. "If we play games on the floor, the Democrats could end up picking who the speaker is," he warned Monday on Newsmax.
The fact McCarthy felt the need to warn about this "rather fanciful hypothetical," in which a group of moderate Republicans joins with Democrats to pick a mutually agreeable speaker, appears "to say plenty about how imperiled he views his ascent," Aaron Blake and JM Rieger write at The Washington Post. But a lot depends on how committed his far-right GOP critics are in their quest to sink his speaker dreams again — as they did in 2015.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
If five anti-McCarthy Republicans abstain or vote "present" instead of for another Republican, McCarthy would still have enough votes to become speaker.
The problem for McCarthy is that "a growing list of House Republicans is threatening to not vote for him," Politico reports. One definite "no," Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), said Monday he counts roughly 20 "pretty hard no's" in the GOP caucus. enough to "prevent Kevin from getting the speakership." (Blake and Rieger assess the strength of the no votes at the Post.)
House Republicans are meeting Wednesday to discuss their rules for next year's majority, and the Freedom Caucus — the font of resistance to McCarthy — has several demands. McCarthy "must balance the appearance of acquiescing to some conservative demands while also ensuring that whatever ground he gives doesn't undercut him if he does become speaker," Politico reports.
The threat of Democrats and moderate Republicans banding together to pick a speaker is one reason prominent hardliner Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is sticking with McCarthy — she floated the idea they would pick outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) for the position. But even that scenario didn't dislodge no-voter Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.). "There are definitely at least five people, actually a lot more than that, who would rather be waterboarded by Liz Cheney than vote for Kevin McCarthy for speaker of the House," he told The Charlie Kirk Show.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
5 costly cartoons about the national debt
Cartoons Political cartoonists take on the USA's financial hole, rare bipartisan agreement, and Donald Trump and Mike Johnson.
-
Green goddess salad recipe
The Week Recommends Avocado can be the creamy star of the show in this fresh, sharp salad
-
The Biden cover-up: a 'near-treasonous' conspiracy
Talking Point Using 'Trumpian' tactics, the former president's inner circle maintained a conspiracy of silence around his cognitive and physical decline
-
White House tackles fake citations in MAHA report
speed read A federal government public health report spearheaded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was rife with false citations
-
Judge blocks push to bar Harvard foreign students
speed read Judge Allison Burroughs sided with Harvard against the Trump administration's attempt to block the admittance of international students
-
Trump's trade war whipsawed by court rulings
Speed Read A series of court rulings over Trump's tariffs renders the future of US trade policy uncertain
-
Elon Musk departs Trump administration
speed read The former DOGE head says he is ending his government work to spend more time on his companies
-
Trump taps ex-personal lawyer for appeals court
speed read The president has nominated Emil Bove, his former criminal defense lawyer, to be a federal judge
-
US trade court nullifies Trump's biggest tariffs
speed read The US Court of International Trade says Trump exceeded his authority in imposing global tariffs
-
Trump pauses all new foreign student visas
speed read The State Department has stopped scheduling interviews with those seeking student visas in preparation for scrutiny of applicants' social media
-
Trump pardons Virginia sheriff convicted of bribery
speed read Former sheriff Scott Jenkins was sentenced to 10 years in prison on federal bribery and fraud charges