Spider-Man's long shot Best Picture nomination now looks much less likely

Can Spider-Man do whatever an awards season favorite can?

Pundits have been wondering that since the debut of Spider-Man: No Way Home, floating the idea, as unlikely as it might sound, that the Marvel blockbuster could actually be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. In December, The Hollywood Reporter wrote that the team behind the film planned to push it for a nomination, and a Variety column argued it should be in contention, in part because the Oscars "need mainstream cred" after last year's disastrous ratings.

But on Thursday, the nominations for the Producers Guild of America Awards, a key Oscars precursor, were revealed, and No Way Home wasn't nominated in the top category. Instead, the nominees were Being the Ricardos, Belfast, CODA, Don't Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…BOOM!, and West Side Story. There's traditionally a good amount of overlap between the PGAs and the Academy Awards, so the Oscars' Best Picture line-up may look quite similar.

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No Way Home's absence was particularly detrimental because, as The New York Times' Kyle Buchanan pointed out, the PGAs are even more open to recognizing blockbusters than the Oscars, having previously nominated movies like A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, Deadpool, and Skyfall. So if No Way Home can't even earn recognition from the PGAs, the Oscars almost certainly won't recognize it for Best Picture either. The same can be said about No Time to Die and House of Gucci, both Best Picture hopefuls that the PGAs snubbed.

On the flip side, the PGAs provided more momentum to Being the Ricardos, a film whose star Nicole Kidman is a Best Actress frontrunner but that pundits haven't been certain would also be nominated for Best Picture. We'll find out which of these contenders can repeat their success, and which dark horses could sneak in, when the Oscar nominations are unveiled on Feb. 8.