Are the latest Omicron findings enough to avert further Covid restrictions?

Ministers will continue to monitor data on the Omicron variant of Covid after two studies suggested that it was likely to cause milder symptoms than the Delta strain.

The real-world hospitalisation data from Scotland and England, published yesterday, provides “early support for Boris Johnson’s decision to pause further restrictions”, said The Times.

But in contrast to leaders in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, the prime minister has decided to “hold off” on announcing any further measures in England, with sources saying this will be reviewed after Boxing Day, reported the paper.

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‘Christmas gift’ of data

Researchers at Imperial College London, led by Professor Neil Ferguson, analysed the hospitalisation and vaccine records for 56,000 cases of Omicron and 269,000 cases of Delta between 1 and 14 December. They found that the risk of going to hospital was 20% to 25% lower for Omicron than for Delta. For those who had no vaccination or prior infection, the risk was 11% lower for Omicron.

The University of Edinburgh found a “two-thirds reduction in the risk of Covid-19 hospitalisation” for Omicron when compared to Delta. However, the “confidence in that estimate is quite low”, said Tom Clarke, science and technology editor at Sky News. While the study covers the medical histories of 99% of the Scottish population, fewer than 20 people have been admitted to hospital with Omicron so far and this includes “hardly anyone” over the age of 60.

Nevertheless, “at this stage of the Omicron wave, it’s as good a Christmas gift as we could have hoped for”, said Clarke.

‘Vindication’ for Johnson

The Daily Mail’s front page claimed that Omicron is “weaker” than Delta, “vindicating” the prime minister’s refusal to bring in new curbs. As Johnson faces growing calls for clarity on Covid measures, particularly from the hospitality industry, the Mail declared: “Now save New Year, Boris!”

One cabinet minister told The Telegraph that the data was “good news, as expected, for those of us who have been resisting more restrictions”, and that if hospital numbers remain stable it could represent a “killer blow” against those in government pushing for further measures.

The ‘danger zone’

The studies are “clearly good news” if you test positive with Omicron, said James Gallagher, the BBC’s health and science correspondent, “but it’s also important to remember some basic maths”.

The pressure on the NHS comes from a combination of severity and transmissibility, he explained. “If Omicron is half as severe, but we have twice the number of cases – then we’re back where we started.”

New Covid cases yesterday reached 106,000, the highest daily figure since the start of the pandemic – and if a large number of healthcare staff have to isolate, there is even more strain on hospitals.

Researchers have also warned that it is too early to say “categorically” that Omicron is intrinsically milder than Delta, added Tom Bawden, science and environment correspondent at the i news site. The variant’s impact on hospitals might not be clear for weeks, others warned.

Dr Jim McMenamin, the national Covid-19 incident director for Public Health Scotland, welcomed the Edinburgh research as a “qualified good news story”, but said it was “important we don’t get ahead of ourselves”.

Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It’s undeniably good news, but I think we’re definitely not out of the danger zone.”

Despite anger from the hospitality industry and other sectors at the ongoing uncertainty over future Covid measures, several newspapers reported that Johnson is not expected to announce any further restrictions until after Christmas.

In the meantime, reported the Daily Express, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said: “Getting vaccinated this Christmas is the best gift you can give the doctors and nurses who will be working hard throughout the holiday season.”