Covid-19: where we are now

Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations are on the rise in the UK and more than 100,000 Britons are at risk of developing long Covid in the coming weeks, scientists have warned.

The latest hospital figures showed a 20% jump in daily admissions in the week to 22 December, according to the NHS, with experts warning that Covid infection numbers could hit record numbers in the UK.

The figures come amid warnings from volunteer Covid variant trackers that a new, highly mutated Covid variant, JN.1, could become as impactful as Omicron, the last Covid strain to have been issued a Greek letter by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

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How much of a threat is JN.1?

In late 2021, in the wake of the deadly Delta wave of infections, a new variant came "flying in out of left field", said Fortune. Omicron was "so highly mutated, so drastically different that it changed the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic", with Covid and Omicron becoming "all but synonymous".

Now, the new variant JN.1, has achieved similar global dominance, but whether WHO will recognise it with a Greek letter "remains to be seen", Fortune said. As of today, the international health body still has not done so – and "some experts say that's a mistake".

JN.1, appears to be "especially adept at infecting those who have been vaccinated or previously infected", said the Washington Post. It is also the currently the fastest-growing variant in the United States, according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, accounting for 15-29% of infections.

While highly contagious, the JN.1 subvariant – which is also sweeping the UK – "is not thought to be any more severe than other recent Covid variants", said the i newspaper. However, reduced levels of vaccinations in the past two years "have increased the risk of serious symptoms when people become infected", the paper added.

Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, an expert on infectious diseases, who leads the WHO's Department for Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention told Sky News that vaccinating at-risk people needs to remain a priority globally.

"The vaccination coverage in all countries of the at-risk groups is abysmal," she told the broadcaster. "For me, this is the biggest frustration. Covid-19 actually has solutions […] that can prevent severe disease and death. Why aren't we using them?"

What is the risk posed by long Covid?

A new UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) national influenza and Covid report released last week, confirmed that Covid cases and hospitalisations have risen since the last updates just before Christmas, prompting "fears of a sharp rise in long Covid in the coming weeks", said the i newspaper.

Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, told the paper that the current wave of Covid "will inevitably result in thousands of new cases of long Covid".

"Vaccination against Covid reduces the severity and duration of long Covid," Young said. "But restricted access to the latest booster jab – only the over 65s, clinical vulnerable and healthcare workers are eligible – means that many people are more likely to suffer the acute and long-term effects of Covid."

Is Covid a 'winter bug'?

Covid cases last year peaked in December. But experts have cautioned against assuming that the coronavirus will follow the pattern of other respiratory infections and become a winter illness.

Although transmission increases as people mix indoors during the colder months, the same is also true in very hot weather, as people head inside to escape the heat.

"It seems like patterns of waning [immunity] and the evolution of [the] virus itself are still the main drivers for the sort of variation that we're seeing," said Professor Steven Riley, director general of data, analytics and surveillance at UKHSA, speaking to The Guardian in October. "[Covid] doesn't seem to have dropped into any kind of resonance with seasonal factors."

However, with pressure increasing on the health service over the winter period, NHS England is urging eligible people to get flu and Covid jabs to avoid a potential "twindemic".

Should we be wearing masks again?

The UK and many other countries have "moved to a position of 'living with the virus' without investing in testing, ventilation and infrastructure changes, and masking", wrote immunologist Sheena Cruickshank, a professor in biomedical sciences at Manchester University, in The Guardian.

But "add to this that vaccine coverage and access to boosters is quite limited, and there’s a recipe for many Covid infections – and a greater likelihood of the virus changing".

The question of whether to mask again is a "complicated" one, said Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology at Reading University.Masking was introduced in the UK in 2020, as part of a wide package of measures.

Yet masks "did not prevent subsequent waves of infections and lockdowns", Clarke said in an article on The Conversation this August. "It seems unlikely that masking on its own, without other measures, would have much effect, if any."