There is growing concern within the Tory party that ministers may have been too hasty in pushing Boris Johnson out of Downing Street as new polling suggests neither of the candidates to replace him can win over his supporters among members and floating voters.
Focus groups and polling for The Times revealed Conservative voters have “sellers’ remorse” over the ousting of Johnson, while in marginal constituencies there is little enthusiasm for either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak.
“At the time Johnson quit most of the country believed he had to go,” said The Times. However, polling has found 49% of Tory supporters think Johnson should remain prime minister, more than the combined support for both Truss and Sunak, “suggesting the Conservative Party leadership contest has triggered a change of heart”, added the paper.
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‘Bring back Boris’
“The man who rescued the Conservative Party from oblivion only three years ago was cast nonchalantly onto the dustbin of history without so much as an afterthought by people, who have none of his election-winning virtuosity,” said Alex Story in the Daily Express.
In a sign of Johnson’s enduring popularity, more than 15,000 Tory party members have reportedly now signed a petition that would grant them the right to vote on whether to accept, or reject, his resignation.
Former Tory party treasurer Lord Cruddas, who set up the petition on Conservative Post, wrote in the Daily Mail that the outgoing prime minister was the victim of a “coup”.
“The ousting of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister by a minority of MPs is deeply anti-democratic. It defies the will of the country and the Conservative Party members who elected him,” he said.
The petition is “the first stage of a campaign by members to reinstate Mr Johnson”, wrote Christopher Hope in The Telegraph last month, “with further plans to pressure association chairmen to take action over his removal from the leadership”.
The Sun later reported that Conservative Party Central Office had been “bombarded” with more than 14,000 letters telling the party to stick with Johnson.
It appears the majority of Tory members and voters agree. The YouGov nationwide survey for The Times found a widespread belief that the Tories had badly damaged the reputation of the party by ousting Johnson before waging a bitter battle to succeed him, while many attributed Sunak’s failure to win over members to his role in ousting his former boss.
Could he return as PM?
Under current Tory party rules Johnson is barred from standing in the contest to replace him. However, he is permitted to put himself forward in any future leadership race.
He is expected to remain an MP after he leaves Downing Street, said HuffPost, and “there is speculation that he still holds ambitions to become prime minister again in the future”.
Former aide turned arch-critic Dominic Cummings suggested as much on Twitter, claiming Johnson was backing Truss in the belief that she would be a disaster as PM and thus make it easier for him to stage a shock comeback.
Politico said “the public remorse over the departure of Johnson could spell danger for Truss if the early days of her premiership don’t go according to plan”, with the unseemly leadership contest between Truss and Sunak appearing “to have made Johnson look like a better bet with hindsight”.
“Would anyone bet against the Tories doing so?” asked Martin Fletcher in The New Statesman. “Johnson would still be by far the most colourful and engaging politician in Britain. He would savage Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions. He alone could hope to win back Red Wall seats. He would doubtless enjoy the backing of the Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and the Sun, and of assorted Tory donors.”
Much could depend on the outcome of the long-awaited Commons inquiry into whether Johnson misled Parliament. Were the Commons Privileges Committee, led by Harriet Harman, to find Johnson in contempt of Parliament, that would see him face a recall petition in his Uxbridge constituency.
Even if he were to lose his seat in a subsequent by-election, there have been reports Johnson could keep his hopes of a dramatic return to No. 10 alive by moving to a safe constituency with a much larger Conservative majority.
The Daily Mirror even suggested that Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, who has been a loyal supporter of Johnson for many years, could give up her Bedfordshire seat which has a majority of 24,600 in return for a peerage.
“Boris thinks the Tory party has made a huge mistake getting rid of him and, with time, will come to regret it,” one source told the paper. “It might sound deluded, but his team thinks he can have another go at Prime Minister if he holds on.”
