Is Belarus the next serious threat to the West?

Belarus would be willing to use nuclear weapons in the face of foreign “aggression”, said the country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko.

Europe’s longest-serving leader warned that if he felt provoked by neighbouring Nato nations like Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, he would “immediately respond with everything we have”, including the nuclear weapons Moscow reportedly delivered to him in June.

As tensions rise between Belarus and Nato states, he warned that “we will not tarry, wait, and the rest”, adding: “We will use the entire arsenal of our weapons for deterrence.”

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What did the papers say?

Lukashenko’s latest comments come as “the security landscape in Europe becomes increasingly volatile”, said CNN, with the former Soviet Baltic states “on edge” over the presence of Russian mercenary group Wagner in neighbouring Belarus.

Warsaw is sending 10,000 troops to its border with Belarus, as the mercenary group sets up camp and recruitment posters announcing its presence. Lithuania has closed two of its six border crossings into Belarus, as Latvia also bolsters its borders with Russia’s ally.

Known as the “last European dictator”, Lukashenko has been “escalating tensions with NATO”, said Sky News. The “wily politician” has “goaded” Poland, suggesting that Wagner forces based in Belarus posed a threat to them, said the broadcaster.

There have also been reports of Belarusian helicopters involved in “border violations”, it added, “all designed to heighten tensions with Belarus’s NATO neighbours”.

Meanwhile, Belarus is strengthening ties with China as “both countries face diplomatic tensions with the West”, said Deustche Welle. Beijing’s defence minister, Li Shangfu, visited Belarus this week, “seeking closer military coordination”.

The two nations agreed on more military drills next year, but Lukashenko insisted that “all of our cooperation – and it is very significant – is in no way directed against third countries”.

Nevertheless, he also noted that Belarus depends mainly on “friends” such as China and Russia for military aid. With Vladimir Putin keen to draw Belarus into the conflict with Ukraine, there are fears Lukashenko may agree to such a development.

What next?

Belarus has been targeted with Western sanctions for assisting Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Putin, with the approval of Lukashenko, has used Belarus to launch attacks on Ukraine, with Russian soldiers also positioned on Belarusian territory.

The question is whether Lukashenko goes a step further and fully joins the conflict. If he did join the war with Ukraine, it would be “against the wishes of his electorate”, said Sky News.

As a supporter of a “state union” with the Russian Federation, Lukashenko is thought to see himself as the natural successor to Putin. But “he also recognises that popular Belarusian opinion does not support closer ties with Russia”, and “polls suggest there is almost no support for Belarus entering the war with Ukraine”.

Therefore, he “must balance the oft-conflicting ambitions of the Russian leader and his own electorate”, Sky News added.

It is a difficult balance to strike because, although Lukashenko claims he can be loyal to Moscow while staying independent, sanctions have left the country “even more reliant on Russia’s economy”, said the Financial Times.

His “increasingly erratic and unpredictable rhetoric has increased tensions between Belarus and NATO”, as he and Putin become “increasingly autocratic leaders whose egotistical self-serving actions risk escalating the war in Ukraine”, said Sky News.

But some feel the threat is not that great because of the divisions between the two leaders. Belarus may be a “virtual dependent of Russia”, said The New York Times, but Lukashenko “is emerging with more power in the aftermath” of the Wagner Group’s uprising, said Jennifer Mathers in The Conversation last month. He is “playing a tactical game”, she said. His interventions in the “mutiny episode” show that he “does not necessarily operate in lockstep with Moscow”, she added.

Speaking to NBC News, Rosemary Thomas, Britain’s ambassador to Belarus between 2009 and 2012, was even more dismissive of a threat, saying the Belarusian leader is “basically a laughing stock in large parts of the West”.