UK and Europe’s unseasonably warm weather

The UK and Europe are in the midst of an unusually mild spell of weather that could mean good news for energy bills but further worries for the health of the planet.

In what proved to be a scorching mid-July, the UK recorded its highest ever temperature – 40.2C at Heathrow – and this year has been far from typical weather-wise, both at home and abroad.

While autumn has brought the mercury down somewhat, the unusually high temperatures that roasted the continent, fuelled record numbers of wildfires and left most of Europe facing water shortages may not quite be over.

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What is happening?

Thermometers are expected to climb above 20C this weekend across parts of Britain, as well as elsewhere in northern Europe. There will be “unseasonably warm temperatures throughout the next week” in southern areas, according to LBC. In Madrid, it is also expected to top 20C over the coming days while Paris is projected to hit 25C, with the French national weather service even anticipating a warmer than normal December.

While some in the UK may welcome some October sunshine, the heatwave will be followed by plummeting temperatures in November, with snow forecast in northern and western areas, especially over higher ground.

A spokesperson for the Met Office told the Mirror that from 7-21 November it will turn “colder and drier”. There will be a “risk of chilly nights with mist, frost and fog in places”. The i news site suggested “this could mean that a white Christmas could be on the cards for the first time since 2010”.

Why is it happening?

The current heatwave has largely been attributed to “a mass of hot air blowing in from northwest Africa” as well as “areas of high and low pressure on either side of the country”, said MailOnline. The warm plume of air from Africa, known as the Azores Plume for its passing through the Portuguese islands, is being pushed north by the jet stream. which regulates European temperatures.

Despite the prospect of snow over Christmas, such varied weather events are not good news. The bizarre peaks and troughs are ultimately “a sign of changing weather patterns”, said the BBC. “Heatwaves have become more frequent and more intense, and last longer, because of human-induced climate change,” added the broadcaster.

Earth has warmed by roughly 1.1C since the industrial revolution, destabilising predictable weather patterns and threatening ecosystems around the world. According to The Guardian, record temperatures are “a harbinger of rising risks to lives and livelihoods”.

The unusual temperatures coincide with the world’s largest annual climate conference, Cop27, which is taking place this year in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Delegates from hundreds of nations will descend on the beachside resort to seek resolutions designed to stabilise the global climate and equitably address the impacts of climate change.

What does it mean for energy bills?

The hotter temperatures could spell some rare good news for energy prices. Bloomberg described the warmer autumn as a “blessing” for Europe, which has “built up robust winter gas storage levels instead of drawing down supplies”.

Earlier this week “natural gas in Europe dropped below €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since June”, according to Fortune. Higher temperatures reducing domestic demand for energy coupled with “ample supplies” are lowering costs as well as “eas[ing] fears of shortages this winter”.

However, “prices remain about three times higher than the five-year average for the time of the year”, the website added, and a “cold snap could quickly renew supply concerns”.

Despite the price uncertainty, scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service believe that European temperatures will remain higher than usual across the peak heating season between December and February.