Nigerian election: the battle to control Africa’s largest economy

Tens of millions of Nigerians will head to the polls on Saturday to elect a successor to the country’s president Muhammadu Buhari, who is stepping down after two terms in office.

As election day approaches, analysts are describing the vote as a key “inflection point” for the country and also potentially the African continent. Nigeria “is large enough to change the fortunes of the entire region through its own success or failure”, said Foreign Policy, so this election “is a global event – even if the world scarcely knows it”.

Who is leading in the polls?

On 25 February, voters will choose from 18 candidates in a first-round vote to succeed Buhari. A run-off will be held unless one candidate gets at least one-quarter of the votes in each of at least two-thirds of all the country’s states.

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Nigerian politics has traditionally been dominated by two major parties since the end of military rule in 1999 – the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and its main opposition, the People’s Democratic party (PDP). But this year an outsider, Peter Obi, leads the polls as the election approaches.

Recent surveys put the 61-year-old businessman-turned-politician between 10% and 40% ahead of his main rivals, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Bola Tinubu of the APC.

A former state governor, Obi ran for the PDP as its vice-presidential candidate in 2019 but switched to the Labour Party last year. His campaign as an outsider able to shake up Nigerian politics has been well received and his support has grown rapidly.

With speeches hailed by some as “fresh and unifying”, but criticised as “populist” by his detractors, Obi has “caught the attention of Nigeria’s young population, 60% of whom are under the age of 25”, said France 24.

A win for Obi on Saturday would herald “potentially sweeping change in Africa’s most populous nation”, said The Guardian. However, experts warn that a low turnout could mean victory for the ruling party’s candidate, Tinubu.

“The current government is in a bad situation, and the way many young people see it is that people like Abubakar and Tinubu are part of the problem,” said Dele Babalola, a Nigeria expert at Canterbury Christ Church University in Kent. “Obe [sic] is 61 but he’s the youngest of the candidates [the other two being in their 70s] and a fresh face.”

Will it be fair?

Elections in Nigeria are “often tainted by ethnic and religious rhetoric”, said DW, “with past votes marred by violence and fraud”.

“All elections are important, but there really is a lot riding on this one,” said Leena Koni Hoffmann, from the Chatham House think tank in London. “It is really important that this election is credible, is free and perceived as fair.”

The election has already witnessed considerable violence. At least eight police officers have been killed in separate attacks by suspected rebels in Nigeria’s southeast in recent days. The incidents have “stoked fears about the ability of Nigeria’s security forces to protect voters at the polls this weekend”, said Al Jazeera.

Festus Okoye, from Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission, said that it might not be possible to scrutinise some polling stations because of security concerns.

“The security agencies have promised that they have the capacity to secure our communities to make it possible for people to vote,” he said. “[But] for people in zones that are still in conflict, there is absolutely nothing we can do.”

According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), part of the problem is the “impunity for abuses by security forces and other actors during the previous general elections in 2019”.

“There is a thick veil of violence shrouding the 2023 elections that undermines people’s fundamental right to vote,” said Anietie Ewang, a Nigerian researcher at HRW.

“It is important for the authorities to swiftly restore public confidence in their ability to hold those responsible for electoral violence accountable and ensure the safety and security of all Nigerians,” Ewang added.

How will it impact the rest of the world?

The election is “being fought against the backdrop of rampant insecurity and economic stagnation”, said the Financial Times. “Crisis-ridden Nigeria is no longer the stabilising force it once was in a region where coups, terrorism and Russian influence are proliferating.”

The country’s landmark election “will have a significant bearing not only on Nigeria’s domestic economy and security”, said CNBC, “but on its place in the global trade and diplomatic framework and on faith in democratic transitions in West Africa”.

The outcome of this election matters to the whole world, Chidi Odinkalu, a professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, told the FT.

“No one wants to see Nigeria go up in flames,” said Odinkalu. “We have been teetering on the brink for such a long time that Nigerians have come to believe we are defying the laws of gravity. But some day, gravity will have its say.”

Yet there “are signs of hope”, said Chatham House’s Hoffmann. “Deep dissatisfaction with Nigeria’s metastasized problems seems likely to spur more young people to the polls: 84% of the 10 million new voters added to the register in 2022 were aged 34 or less; only 3% are over 65.”

One first-time voter, 26-year-old Kingsley Chima, told ABC News that the election is make or break: “Either we get things right now in Nigeria, or never.”