Is Trump on track to lose the GOP nomination in 2024?


I'm very much in favor of treating the conventional political wisdom with a healthy dose of skepticism, so I was eager to read a recent, short tweet thread from Nick Gillespie, an editor at large for the libertarian magazine Reason, asserting former President Donald Trump will not be the GOP nominee in 2024. That's a dissenting line I expect to hear with increasing frequency as we approach the next presidential election cycle.
A defeated one-term president doesn't often receive his party's nomination after his loss. But Trump isn't a standard presidential candidate. For one thing, he's managed to forge a powerful and seemingly lasting bond with a sizable faction of his party's voters. For another, he claims — and seems to have convinced an awful lot of Republicans — that he actually won the 2020 election. In that story, he's a winner out for revenge rather than a loser who rather pathetically refuses to accept his own defeat.
Yet Gillespie isn't buying it. In his view, Trump never came close to winning a majority of the popular vote; he's damaged his brand further with his lies about election fraud in 2020; and his hold over the Republican base is waning.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
As evidence of that last point, Gillespie points to some boos Trump recently received from a staunchly anti-vax crowd when he announced he'd received his booster shot and bragged about his administration's role in bringing the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines swiftly and safely to market. Add in "rising stars in the GOP," like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will give Trump voters "95 percent of what they want," and it makes sense to conclude "Trump is as overcooked as one of his steaks."
The only problem with this analysis is ... there's no data to support it. An aggregation of early GOP primary polls has Trump pulling 52.4 percent of the vote, with the second-place DeSantis coming in with less than a third of that (16.4 percent) and everyone else deep into single digits. That's not a close race, and much stronger than Trump's polling through the entirety of the GOP primaries in 2016.
Moreover, when the polls are re-run without Trump included, the results show no similar consolidation around any alternative to Trump. DeSantis pulls in around 28 percent, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence at 16 percent, Donald Trump Jr. at 12 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 9.5 percent, and everyone else at 5 percent or lower.
That's not a picture of a party rallying around a substitute standard-bearer.
But the least convincing thing of all about Gillespie's thread is his opening contention that after the 2022 midterms, GOP "leaders will cut [Trump] loose." If the past six years have taught us anything, it's that there is no safer bet in Washington than wagering against Republican leadership taking Trump down. That's because the party's leadership responds to the voters, and the voters want Trump.
Until that changes, Trump will be on an easy track to win the Republican nomination if he wants it.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Damon Linker is a senior correspondent at TheWeek.com. He is also a former contributing editor at The New Republic and the author of The Theocons and The Religious Test.
-
White Afrikaners land in US as Trump-declared refugees
speed read An exception was made to Trump's near-total ban on admitting refugees for the white South Africans
-
RFK Jr.: A new plan for sabotaging vaccines
Feature The Health Secretary announced changes to vaccine testing and asks Americans to 'do your own research'
-
Education: Can public schools be religious?
Feature A Supreme Court seems ready to rule in favor of religious charter schools in Oklahoma, which could reshape public education
-
White Afrikaners land in US as Trump-declared refugees
speed read An exception was made to Trump's near-total ban on admitting refugees for the white South Africans
-
Why are white South Africans emigrating?
The Explainer As the US welcomes Afrikaner refugees, the general exodus of South Africa's white population continues to grow
-
Democrats: How to rebuild a damaged brand
Feature Trump's approval rating is sinking, but so is the Democratic brand
-
'Two dolls': Can Trump sell Americans on austerity?
Feature Trump's tariffs may be threatening holiday shelves but they've handed Democrats a 'huge gift'
-
Qatar luxury jet gift clouds Trump trip to Mideast
speed read Qatar is said to be presenting Trump with a $400 million plane, which would be among the biggest foreign gifts ever received by the US government
-
The fertility crisis: can Trump make America breed again?
Talking Point The self-styled 'fertilisation president', has been soliciting ideas on how to get Americans to have more babies
-
Trump taps Fox News' Pirro for DC attorney post
speed read The president has named Fox News host Jeanine Pirro to be the top federal prosecutor for Washington, replacing acting US Attorney Ed Martin
-
Trump, UK's Starmer outline first post-tariff deal
speed read President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer struck a 'historic' agreement to eliminate some of the former's imposed tariffs