Democrats and Republicans' wearying waiting games
Republicans have inched ahead in the generic ballot, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. These surveys measure which party voters prefer to see control Congress after November's midterm elections.
The midterms have often delivered sharp rebukes to the White House and brisk reversals in partisan average. Two years after Bill Clinton won the presidency and ushered in three-fifths majorities in both houses of Congress, Republicans erased those majorities, gaining 52 seats in the House. Barack Obama's election in 2008 helped Democrats win even bigger majorities. Two years later, Republicans added 63 House seats.
Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2006 and 2018 foreshowed unified Democratic control of the federal government's elected branches. But voters ultimately turned against what Democrats did with that control. We've repeatedly seen blue waves followed by red ones, claims of permanent Democratic or Republican majorities refuted within an election cycle or two.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
But this change has increasingly made the parties more resistant to changing themselves. All they now need to do is wait for the party in power to become unpopular and the voters will have no choice but to vote them back in again.
That's why Democrats are shining a bright light on Donald Trump's influence over the GOP — they are trying to remind the electorate about what it disliked about Republicans that made them hand the White House to Joe Biden in the first place. But it is not clear that when weighed against inflation, border insecurity, violent crime, and the third year of the pandemic if this will be good enough.
Democrats — who were, if anything, to the left of the ones voters rejected in 2010, 2014, and 2016 — won power, however narrowly, because the alternative was Trump. Some of these Democrats may be replaced by just-as-Trumpy Republicans because they are the only other option.
The biggest exception was Clinton, who sought to systematically address the Democrats' weaknesses on crime, welfare, and values during the 1990s. There is also a slight degree to which Trump distinguished the GOP from its George W. Bush-era incarnation, though he clearly added some new baggage of his own.
But the end result of the past five years of political tumult could continue the polarization as too-woke Democrats and low-brow populist Republicans turn off vast swathes of the country, each side yet waiting for the other to screw up.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
W. James Antle III is the politics editor of the Washington Examiner, the former editor of The American Conservative, and author of Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?.
-
Do youth curfews work?
Today's big question Banning unaccompanied children from towns and cities is popular with some voters but it is contentious politically
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Sleaze baack!'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
Quiz of The Week: 20 - 26 April
Puzzles and Quizzes Have you been paying attention to The Week's news?
By Rebecca Messina, The Week UK Published
-
India elections start amid violence, hate speech accusations
Talking Points Narendra Modi seeks a third term while critics worry about the future of the country's democracy
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Is the Supreme Court about to criminalize homelessness?
Talking Points The court will decide if bans on outdoor camping are 'cruel and unusual'
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Myanmar: the Spring Revolution and the downfall of the generals
Talking Point An armed protest movement has swept across the country since the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi was overthrown in 2021
By The Week Staff Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
India elections 2024: the logistics of world's biggest vote
The Explainer More than 10% of the world's population is registered for a historic democratic exercise, with PM Modi likely to dominate again
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Less than total recall
Editor's Letter Why our brains want to forget the darkest days of the pandemic
By Theunis Bates Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Putin's sham election
Opinion Protest votes show Russian dissent still simmers
By Susan Caskie Published