China and Taiwan's espionage shadow war

Taiwan has accused China of expanding its spying efforts against the self-governing democracy.

Since the start of the year "at least 16 people" have faced accusations of spying for China, the BBC reported, a marked increase on the 44 espionage cases recorded by Taiwan's investigative bureau between 2013 and 2019.

Taiwan's "spy catchers" are "paying the closest attention to the military" to root out alleged secret agents thought to be within its armed forces, the BBC explained. Authorities have issued a "steady stream of charges and convictions" for spying in recent months. 

Historically, Taiwan has been an "easy target for Chinese spies", Grant Newsham, a retired US Marine Corps colonel, told the BBC. It is "not very strict about punishing espionage", which "has an effect on willingness to spy for China". 

Espionage generally is a "far more holistic" activity within Chinese state institutions than it is in the UK, said The Telegraph. It ranges "from soft power lobbying to ruthless, hard-nosed, well-armed spy games".

Beijing has long argued that Taiwan is China's territory and it has openly increased military and political pressure on the island to return to its control.

It is a "war without gunfire", Tsai Ming-Yen, director general of Taiwan's National Security Bureau, said recently. And "espionage is one of many ways in which China has tried to interfere or exert influence on the island", the BBC reported.

The fear is that these alleged spies "do not just steal secrets but also help shape public opinion to garner support for China", it added.

Experts suggest this "media warfare" may "psychologically fracture and demoralise" Taiwanese people, with major implications for a looming 2024 election. 

Everything "points toward the same end", said The Telegraph: "procuring knowledge and influence in order to shape the world in China's favour, allowing it to become the pre-eminent power of the 21st century".

Taiwan is attempting to strengthen its resistance, in particular by forging an alliance with the US. Joe Biden's government has provided the island with "certain weapons systems", offering "secret training for Taiwanese troops", The New York Times reported. The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes said Biden is prepared to arm Taiwan "to the teeth" to help it protect itself.

With Biden and China's President Xi Jinping set to meet in San Francisco this week, it is thought the US president may "warn Xi against interfering in Taiwan's election", said NBC.

But Chinese interference may be difficult to undo. The nation has "penetrated many parts of the Taiwanese government over the decades", said The New York Times, and its agents are also seeking to learn more about the US's growing relationship with its "Asian allies". 

"What is it all for?" asked Mike Gallagher, the Republican chair of the US House of Representatives' China committee. "My speculation, based on what we see around our military bases, based on their cyber hacks, is that it is all geared towards Taiwan."

This article first appeared in The Week’s Global Digest newsletter. Sign up for a preview of the international news agenda, sent to your inbox every Monday.

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