Could Thailand and Cambodia really go to war?

Thailand's acting prime minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, has warned that clashes between his nation and Cambodia could "move towards war", said the BBC.

In the "bloodiest military confrontation" between the southeast Asian neighbours in more than a decade, the enemies have "traded heavy artillery and rocket fire" across their disputed frontier, said Al Jazeera, killing at least 16 people and displacing tens of thousands of civilians.

What did the commentators say?

The border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia "dates back more than a hundred years", to when French administrators plotted a frontier between what was then Siam and French Indochina, said the BBC. Thailand has never accepted the colonial-era border, but tensions "ramped up" in May after a Cambodian soldier was killed in a skirmish.

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Most analysts think that "prolonged conflict is unlikely", said The Telegraph, because "previous exchanges of fire have all dissipated relatively quickly", but recent events have "fanned nationalist sentiment", especially in Thailand. There, the dispute has had significant "political ramifications", notably the suspension of prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the shaken Thai government "fears being seen as weak".

Pressure on political and military leaders in Thailand is "mounting", said Tita Sanglee, a Thai-based associate fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, so "restraint may no longer be viable". It remains to be seen "how far the fighting might go".

The conflict has had "flare-ups at various points" before, said Al Jazeera, but "the real concern this time is the usage of really heavy guns". The Cambodians are using Grad rockets and have accused Thailand of dropping widely banned cluster bombs. "It's really just stepping up and stepping up."

If the "months of simmering tensions" did lead to war, Thailand could draw on a much stronger military, said Reuters. Cambodia's defence budget is $1.3 billion and it has 124,300 active military personnel, while Thailand's budget is $5.73 billion and it can call on more than 360,000 active armed forces personnel.

Cambodia has asked the International Court of Justice to resolve the dispute but this is "unlikely to lead to a resolution" because Thailand doesn't accept the court's jurisdiction, said The Guardian. China's "strong economic ties" with Cambodia and Thailand mean it has leverage over both countries, but it's thought to be "more closely aligned with Cambodia", which could "create unease" in Bangkok.

Thailand has already rejected an offer from Malaysia, which chairs the Association of South East Asian Nations, to facilitate talks, insisting that the issue must be solved bilaterally. So while both nations are leaving the door open for talks in the short term, it "seems unlikely" that the dispute will be resolved "quickly", said Time.

What next?

The United Nations Security Council is to hold a private emergency meeting in New York this afternoon to discuss the conflict. In a letter to the council yesterday, Cambodia urged the body to intervene to "stop Thailand's aggression".

Meanwhile, the Foreign Office has not formally advised against travel to either country outright, but said British nationals should "exercise a high level of vigilance in border areas" and be prepared to "follow the instructions of local authorities".