Detentions and hostile treatment: is it safe to visit the US?

There's been a sharp decline in tourists visiting America – as people confront the US administration's draconian new visa requirements and witness a series of travellers being detained and deported.

Official US statistics for overseas visitors show a 2.4% drop in February – the first full month of Donald Trump's second presidential term – compared with the same time last year.

Some experts even "fear a permanent chilling effect" that could upend America's status as a "hub for both business travel and vacations", said The Independent.

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Why are travellers avoiding the US?

Since Trump took office, there have been "stories of temporary visitors with innocuous itineraries being imprisoned for days or weeks", said the paper.

Canadian actor Jasmine Mooney, 35, was kept in detention for 12 days after presenting herself at the US border and requesting a new visa. And Welsh backpacker Becky Burke, 28, was detained for 19 days, accused of violating the terms of her visa, and then removed in leg chains and handcuffs to a deportation flight.

German national Lucas Sielaff, who had a valid visa-waiver entry permit, was shackled at the Mexican border, interrogated and detained for 16 days before being flown back to Germany. "I still have nightmares," he told the Financial Times, which said he is just "one of a string" of European and Canadian tourists to have "suffered hostile treatment at the hands of border guards".

These recent cases are "all the more striking" because they involve citizens of "countries long allied to the US", said The Guardian. Visitors from other regions of the world have "long had difficulty entering the US" but immigration officials had, until now, "taken a more lenient stance towards travellers from allied nations".

How have US visa rules changed?

Trump's executive order to focus on "foreign terrorists and other national security and public safety threats" has put visas for foreign nationals in "jeopardy", said the BBC.

The order requires the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of State to implement "enhanced vetting" for visa applicants. This means visas will need "extended processing time", and "visa appointments are likely to be delayed or suspended".

The US administration is also considering a new travel ban that will target "the citizens of as many as 43 countries" and will be "broader" than the restrictions imposed during Trump's first term, said The New York Times.

Top would be a "red" list of 11 countries, including Cuba and Venezuela, whose citizens would be "flatly barred from entry". Then, citizens of 10 countries on an "orange" list, including Pakistan and Russia, would be allowed entry as a business traveller but not as a tourist or immigrant. Countries on a long "yellow" list, including St Lucia and Zimbabwe, would have 60 days to address US concerns about "deficiencies" or risk being moved to the red or orange list.

Some of the countries on the draft red and orange lists "share characteristics with earlier lists" from Trump's first term, said the paper, in that "they are generally Muslim-majority or otherwise non-white, poor and have governments that are considered weak or corrupt".

Who is especially at risk?

The Foreign Office has recently revised its advice for British citizens travelling to the America to include a warning that anyone found breaking US conditions of entry "may be liable to arrest or detention", rather than just a rejection as before.

The situation for foreign citizens who have changed their gender is particularly unclear. The US State Department has suspended the processing of American passports with the X identity marker, "leaving many non-binary Americans potentially cut off from international travel", said the BBC. And, taking their cue from that, nine European countries – Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, Netherlands – have advised "caution" for trans people planning to visit the US, warning that they should seek advice from an American embassy before travelling.

Could this backfire on the US?

Pollsters are reporting that 36% of Canadians have already cancelled their plans to holiday south of border, said The Telegraph – figures no doubt swelled by Trump's "continued rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state".

This may all play well to Trump's Maga base but, if tourists from other countries follow Canada's lead, the White House could end up seriously short-changed. According to US consultancy Tourism Economics, a 5% drop in international visitors could deliver a $64 billion (£49 billion) blow to the American economy.