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What to expect in tomorrow’s midterm elections
Polls point to a good night for Democrats, even as pundits debate their overall accuracy
After months of fiercely fought campaigns across the country, the 2026 midterms are finally here. Have Democrats convinced voters to send them to Washington as a bulwark against Donald Trump’s MAGA government? While early election data shows Democrats in a strong position to capture one, if not both, chambers of Congress, nothing is set in stone until polls close tomorrow night.
‘Huge chance’ but ‘still not 100%’
A “wave of new polls” could “point to just that” for Democrats, said anchor John Berman on CNN: “a wave.” If polling from The New York Times and Siena bears out on election day, Democrats will “take the Senate with room to spare.”
Data showing Democrats nine points up on Republicans is “important” because that “easily overcomes GOP redistricting,” said CNN’s Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten on “The Enten Scale.” Although Enten placed odds of the Democrats taking the House at more than 90%, he said Democrats have just 72% odds of flipping the Senate — a “huge chance,” but “still not 100%.” The GOP’s 29% likelihood of keeping the Senate “ain’t nothing.”
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Join more than 350,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with a selection of The Week’s most interesting, enlightening and entertaining stories - plus daily puzzles.
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Democratic advantages have allowed candidates to play in races Republicans “thought were unreachable,” said Fox News. But “only to the point of making them battlegrounds.”
‘Inherently imprecise’ but usually ‘in the ballpark’
The media “just can’t let go of their obsession with polls” in an election “dominated by ‘horse race’ reporting,” said USA Today. “Breathless updates” about single-point shifts in certain races presume “such statistical noise actually matters.” But while polls are “inherently imprecise” and subject to “many sources of error,” you can trust them to “usually be in the ballpark,” said pollster Nate Cohn at The New York Times.
Early voting impact
Democrats are “flexing their early voting strength,” said The Guardian, having cast 43% of early votes, compared to Republicans’ 31%. The “overall picture” of early vote trends “offers few positives for Republicans,” said the Times, affording observers “clues about which subgroups are turning out.” Still, the “impact” of the early votes will ultimately “be known only after polls close.”
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Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.
