Could Gazan refugees 'rupture' Israel's decades-long peace with Egypt?
Palestinians fleeing Israeli bombardments look south for escape while Egyptian officials grapple with a potential humanitarian crisis


As Israeli forces continue to push further into the densely packed Gaza Strip, the sheer scale and ferocity of the Israeli offensive has created a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions, with a recent United Nations estimate calculating that 85% of the strip's 2.1 million residents have been displaced within the 140 square mile territory over the past two months alone. After initially focusing largely on northern Gaza, the Israeli military's recent push into the southern half of the strip has left Palestinian civilians with even fewer safe havens, prompting more and more refugees to mass at the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt — the sole access point for aid shipments into, and extremely limited ability to leave the increasingly uninhabitable area.
Throughout this latest spasm of region-shaking violence, Egypt has steadfastly refused to open itself to Palestinian refugees hoping to cross through Rafah and escape Israel's bombardment of Gaza. "Of course we sympathize," Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said in the opening weeks of the war, even as his country continues to resist calls to allow Gazans to enter en masse, going so far as to begin military fortifications at the crossing "reflect[ing] concerns that the border could be breached" by the tens of thousands of refugees desperately congregating on the other side, according to The New York Times. Israel's push into southern Gaza and its overall military campaign "point to attempts to move Palestinians into Egypt," United Nations Relief and Works Agency commissioner general Philippe Lazzarini wrote this weekend in the Los Angeles Times.
As pressure mounts at the Rafah crossing, what could happen next?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What the commentators said
While Egypt and Israel enjoy a nearly half-century-long peace agreement, the prospect of a mass exodus of Palestinian refugees into Egypt's northern Sinai region would prompt a "rupture" between the two nations, multiple U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios. Speaking last week at an Aspen Security conference in Washington, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry called any potential displacement of Gazans into Egypt "inappropriate and in contradiction of international law." Egyptian State Information Service head Diaa Rashwan has similarly called it "a red line."
Israeli officials have denied an organized attempt to relocate Palestinian refugees into Egypt, with one military spokesperson telling France TV that "there is not, never was and never will be an Israeli plan to move the residents of Gaza to Egypt." In November, Israeli officials had "quietly tried to build international support" to transfer Gazans to Egypt "for the duration of its war in the territory" in what they framed as a "humanitarian initiative," according to The New York Times.
Domestically, Egyptian officials worry that an influx of refugees could destabilize the country's "precarious economic situation" as well as "irreparably damage the struggle for Palestinian statehood," The New York Times reported. As Sisi campaigns for what is a virtually guaranteed third term in office, he has been accused by some critics of being "'complicit' in Israel's killings of civilians" while lauded by others "for what they view as foiling an Israeli scheme to displace Palestinians into Egypt" The Atlantic Council's Shahira Amin said last week.
What next?
If Gazans are indeed pushed into Egypt, or elsewhere, the existing "Palestinian refugee crisis — bad as it is now — could metastasize and worsen, creating predictable lasting global repercussions," Rand Corporation Infrastructure, Immigration, & Security Operations Program director Shelly Culbertson predicted. For Egypt, accepting mass refugees would "have destabilizing implications," and more broadly for Israel, another mass exodus of Palestinian refugees would "further erode" prospects for regional stability with other nations, "including prospects for a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Egypt, meanwhile, may ultimately open the Rafah crossing for select Gazan refugees in the coming year, Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported according to Israel's I24 News. While Egypt's public stance is to remain closed to refugees for now, the government is reportedly looking into an "organized departure process via pre-issued exit permits, highlighting criteria such as health conditions requiring care, humanitarian grounds, and education." The potential softening of its stance on Gazan refugees allegedly stems from concerns that "Israel may hinder Gaza's economic recovery post-conflict" as well as Hamas' effort to "pressure Egypt by inciting Gaza residents to flock to the Rafah crossing."
Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.
-
What to know before turning to AI for financial advice
the explainer It can help you crunch the numbers — but it might also pocket your data
-
Book reviews: 'The Headache: The Science of a Most Confounding Affliction—and a Search for Relief' and 'Tonight in Jungleland: The Making of Born to Run'
Feature The search for a headache cure and revisiting Springsteen's 'Born to Run' album on its 50th anniversary
-
Keith McNally' 6 favorite books that have ambitious characters
Feature The London-born restaurateur recommends works by Leo Tolstoy, John le Carré, and more
-
Israeli double strike on Gaza hospital kills 20
Speed Read The dead include five journalists who worked for The Associated Press, Reuters and Al Jazeera
-
China is silently expanding its influence in American cities
Under the Radar New York City and San Francisco, among others, have reportedly been targeted
-
Settling the West Bank: a death knell for a Palestine state?
In the Spotlight The reality on the ground is that the annexation of the West Bank is all but a done deal
-
The IDF's manpower problem
The Explainer Israeli military's shortage of up to 12,000 troops results in call-up for tens of thousands of reservists
-
Trump halts Gaza visas as Israelis protest war
Speed Read Laura Loomer voiced her concerns over injured Palestinian kids being brought to the US for treatment and a potential 'Islamic invasion'
-
Is Trump's new peacemaking model working in DR Congo?
Talking Point Truce brokered by the US president in June is holding, but foundations of a long-term peace have let to be laid
-
Israeli security cabinet OKs Gaza City takeover
Speed Read Netanyahu approved a proposal for Israeli Defense Forces to take over the largest population center in the Gaza Strip
-
How China uses 'dark fleets' to circumvent trade sanctions
The Explainer The fleets are used to smuggle goods like oil and fish