Bellwether seats and 'big beasts' at risk: how election night will unfold

Thursday's "night of political drama" will begin when the exit poll is published at 10pm, said Tim Glanfield in The Sunday Times. 

This poll is only a sample of voters from 150 constituencies across the UK, but usually provides a pretty accurate picture of how each party has performed. 

The first of 650 constituencies to declare will be Sunderland, a safe Labour seat where a result is due by 11.30pm. By 2am, about 50 more will have been declared – many also safe Labour seats in northern urban areas.

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The seats to keep an eye on

Watch the bellweather seat of Nuneaton: the party that wins here has gone on to govern after every election except one since 1983. In Rochdale, we'll see if George Galloway holds the seat he won in February's by-election.

"The excitement will really ramp up" from 3am, when several Tory "big beasts" will discover their fates, said Dominic Penna and Rachel Slater in The Daily Telegraph. They include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is at risk of losing to the Lib Dems – as are ministers Alex Chalk and Gillian Keegan. Others, such as Grant Shapps, Iain Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and leadership hopeful Penny Mordaunt are at risk of losing to Labour.

The final election results

Sunak's constituency will be declared at about 4am – some polls suggest that even he could slump to a historic defeat.

There are pitfalls for Labour too, said Robert Ford in The Observer. Jeremy Corbyn is challenging his old party in Islington North, a seat he has held for 40 years; shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire's Bristol Central seat is a target for the Greens. Both of those results will be in by 4am, when we'll also find out whether Reform UK's Nigel Farage has won in Clacton, to become an MP at his eighth attempt, said Jamie Grierson in The Guardian.

By 7am, any remaining seats will have been declared – and whoever is set to lead the next government will be preparing to address the nation.