How the UK's asylum case backlog is measured

Rishi Sunak's claim to have met a pledge to clear the backlog of so-called legacy asylum claims has been branded misleading as tens of thousands of people continue waiting for decisions on their applications.

The prime minister said on Monday that "relentless action" had seen the Home Office process more than 112,000 asylum cases in 2023, meeting government targets to clear the claims backlog before the end of last year.

But with almost 100,000 people currently seeking asylum in the UK, Labour accused Sunak of pushing a "barefaced lie" about the true state of the country's unprocessed asylum claims.

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How is the UK's asylum backlog measured?

Home Secretary James Cleverly said that every so-called "legacy application" has now been processed, delivering on Sunak's 2022 promise to "abolish" the asylum backlog by the end of 2023.

So what exactly is the legacy backlog? It is the term for those applications "made before asylum laws changed in 2022", the BBC explained.

However, new figures published yesterday show that the legacy backlog does not reveal the full picture on asylum claims. The total number of outstanding rolling cases currently stands at 99,000. 

This figure includes 4,500 "complex" legacy applications that are being processed but are not yet resolved, as well as the 94,000 new applications made since June 2022 that are awaiting even an initial decision.

The government calls this new figure the "flow backlog", which is now "larger than the legacy backlog was when Mr Sunak promised to abolish it in December 2022", said the BBC.

Has anything really changed?

The government is engaging in a game of "numberwang", said Politico, referring to a recurring sketch from TV comedy "That Mitchell and Webb Look" in which the two contestants call out seemingly random numbers to win a fictitious game show.

The figures that have just been published "are not full quarterly statistics, which are only due on 29 February", the site added. Instead, they are "ad hoc 'additional statistics' which allow the Home Office to highlight things it wants to shout about".

Shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock accused the prime minister of promoting a "barefaced lie" that was "an insult to the public's intelligence".

As well as the questions around how the government is measuring asylum applications, politicians and charities also criticised ministers for removing, or "withdrawing", 17,000 asylum claims. 

Applications can be withdrawn "for reasons such as failing to attend interviews or appointments", explained The Independent. This can also happen "without the asylum seeker's consent" or even when the Home Office has been unable to contact an applicant or does not know where they are.

Enver Solomon, CEO of the Refugee Council, said the Home Office had "lost track of too many people who have been removed from the asylum process" who are now "at risk of sleeping rough during the winter months". 

In a post on X, MP Scott Benton, who had the Tory whip removed over a lobbying scandal, wrote: "Having a de facto amnesty where you simply approve the majority of applications as 'genuine', and 17,000 people running off never to be seen again, does not count as reducing the asylum backlog."

What happens next?

Cleverly has countered that it is "completely wrong" to say his department has only hit its targets by fudging figures or approving more claims to get through them faster. "We have done it by investing money, by recruiting more people, by streamlining the processes so that now we are processing applications typically around 10 times faster," he told Times Radio.

However, the home secretary would not commit to a target for clearing the outstanding backlog, telling BBC Radio 4's "Today" programme that the "point is that it's impossible to say and I'm not going to make predictions".

The government's announcements this week may be "eye-catching", said Diane Taylor in The Guardian, but until ministers genuinely collaborate to address the "root causes of forced migration", Sunak will "never be able to deliver on his promise to 'stop the boats'". 

In any case, "wouldn't it be nice if he could hold the thought that this is not just about boats and stats," Taylor added. "This is about flesh and blood: real people."